Derby preps in spotlight

On March 13, the top five horses in BloodHorse’s Derby Dozen were Essential Quality, Life is Good, Greatest Honour, Mandaloun and Medina Spirit. As is often the case in the run-up to the Kentucky Derby, however, the picture has changed dramatically in the three weeks since.

Although Essential Quality remains the Derby favorite, the other four 3-year-olds listed above are no longer ranked in the top five. Life is Good, a decisive winner of the San Felipe on March 6, suffered a hind-leg injury in a workout on the 20th. Surgery was declared “successful,” but the unbeaten colt is expected to be away from the races until late summer at least.

The other three top-five colts were all defeated in their most recent outings. Greatest Honour, sent off at 4-5 in the Florida Derby, finished a non-threat

ening third in that race. Mandaloun checked in sixth as the 6-5 favorite in the Louisiana Derby. Lastly, Medina Spirit beat all but one horse in the

San Felipe but finished eight lengths behind Life is Good.

At this point, it doesn’t much matter where a horse ranks in polls; the more important number is how many qualifying points he has accumulated. Despite their recent losses, Greatest Honour

(80 points) and Mandaloun (52) both have enough points to qualify for the race.

Essential Quality (40) and Medina Spirit (34), however, may need additional points, which is why they’re back in action this afternoon. Essential Quality is the 3-5 morning-line choice in the Blue Grass; Medina Spirit is favored at 5-2 in the Santa Anita Derby. Together with the Wood Memorial, which is also being contested today, these three races make this the biggest single day of the Derby prep season. The first four finishers in each race will receive 100, 40, 20 and 10 qualifying points, respectively.

Following is a brief overview of the three races.

Blue Grass Stakes (G2)

On paper, Essential Quality towers over his eight rivals. Perfect in four starts, the son of Tapit’s three graded wins are two more than the total for the rest of the Blue Grass field combined. He’ll also be running on a Keeneland surface that was the site of his two biggest triumphs, last year’s Breeders’ Futurity and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.

Essential Quality’s competition includes Keepmeinmind (8-1), who placed behind him in the Futurity and Juvenile. In his lone 2021 start, however, Keepmeinmind finished a disappointing sixth in the Rebel Stakes. Hidden Stash ran well in two stakes over the winter, finishing third in the Sam Davis and second in the Tampa Bay Derby, and may be an overlay at 201. Rombauer (15-1), promising as a 2-year-old, exits a win in the ungraded El Camino Real Derby. In his graded-stakes debut, Highly Motivated (3-1) finished third in the Gotham.

Wood Memorial (G2)

The Wood features the winners of Aqueduct’s other two graded Derby preps. Risk Taking, today’s 5-2 favorite, romped in the Withers by 3 ¾ lengths, while Weyburn (9-2) nosed out Crowded Trade in the Gotham. Crowded Trade is also entered in the Wood and is pegged at 4-1.

Other expected starters include Brooklyn Strong (6-1), last year’s Remsen winner, who has yet to race in 2021. Candy Man Rocket (12-1) won the Sam Davis by a length but finished eleventh as the 3-2 favorite in the Tampa Bay Derby. Prevalence (3-1) comes in off an impressive allowance win at Gulfstream.

Santa Anita Derby (G1)

Medina Spirit is the only graded-stakes winner in the field. His victory in the Robert B. Lewis was sandwiched between runner-up finishes in the Sham Stakes and San Felipe. Medina Spirit will attempt to give Bob Baffert his tenth victory in a race he first won with Cavonnier in 1996.

The other nine expected starters include four horses who have hit the board in a graded race at some level. Roman Centurian (8-1) finished second behind Medina Spirit in the G3 Lewis. The Great One (8-1) was second in last year’s Los Alamitos Futurity (G2). Dream Shake (7-2) was third in the San Felipe (G2) and Parnelli (20-1) finished third in the G3 Sham.