The Saratogian (Saratoga, NY)

An advanced-stats look at this year’s Final Four teams

- By NOAH TRISTER

Gonzaga and Baylor breezed through their regions without much difficulty. Houston played four double-digit seeds but was still tested in a couple close games. UCLA started in the First Four and needed overtime just to advance from that — but the Bruins have kept winning ever since.

The participan­ts in this year’s Final Four took different roads to get to this point, and they also have different statistica­l profiles. Here’s a look at some of their strengths and weakness, using advanced stats. Many of the stats cited in this piece can be found at kenpom.com and are becoming more and more common in mainstream basketball analysis. GONZAGA (30-0)

Pomeroy Rank: 1

Strengths: Much has already been made of Gonzaga’s 2-point field goal percentage, which leads the nation. The Bulldogs are shooting 63.7% inside the arc. They understand­ably don’t rely too much on 3s, but they make those at a solid clip of 37.1%. That’s enough for Gonzaga to rank No. 1 in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency.

Weaknesses: It’s hard to find many on a team that has won all

but one of its games by double figures, but on defense, Gonzaga’s block percentage ranks 262nd in the country. Rim protection could be an issue if an opponent can attack the basket against the Bulldogs.

In This Tournament: The Elite Eight was supposed to be strength against strength — Gonzaga’s 2-point offense against Southern California’s excellent 2-point defense. Instead, the Bulldogs picked the Trojans apart and shot 58% from inside the arc. Gonzaga was even better in its previous game against Creighton, shooting 76% on 2s.

BAYLOR (26-2)

Pomeroy Rank: 2 Strengths: Baylor has made 3-pointers at a bestin-the-nation clip of 41.1%. The Bears are also good on the offensive boards (seventh in the country in offensive rebounding percentage) and their defense is No. 3 in turnover percentage.

Weaknesses: While Baylor is good at creating extra opportunit­ies via offensive rebounds and turnovers, the Bears are ranked 273rd in defensive rebounding percentage. That could be an issue when they go up against Houston.

In This Tournament: Baylor had an uncharacte­ristically terrible time shooting 3s against Villanova, going 3 of 19, but the Bears survived when the Wildcats went 3 of 17 themselves. Baylor’s defensive rebounding has gotten a little worse with each game, but it hasn’t gotten the Bears in too much trouble yet. Arkansas had 11 offensive rebounds compared to Baylor’s 18 defensive rebounds — an offensive rebounding percentage of 37.9 for the Razorbacks. The Bears still won by nine.

HOUSTON (28-3)

Pomeroy Rank: 3 Strengths: The Cougars have a strength that lines up nicely with Baylor’s weakness — Houston is No. 2 in the nation in offensive rebounding percentage. Also, Houston’s defense is No. 1 in effective field goal percentage allowed. Teams have shot poorly against the Cougars from both inside and outside the arc.

Weaknesses: Houston’s defense ranks 332nd in free throw rate, meaning the Cougars put opponents on the line quite a bit. That hasn’t hurt their overall defensive efficiency that much, but it’s certainly a vulnerabil­ity.

Newspapers in English

Newspapers from United States