Exploring Juan Soto trades - no matter how far-fetched
The trade deadline became a bit more suspenseful over the weekend when The Athletic reported that Washington outfielder Juan Soto turned down a $440 million, 15-year offer to stay with the Nationals.
Suddenly, social media was ablaze with talk of Soto possibly being traded, and what kind of incredible offer it might take to acquire him.
A deal involving the 23-year-old star would be seismic because of his talent, his youth and the fact that he’s not due to be a free agent until after the 2024 season. Any team considering acquiring Soto would have to weigh how likely he’d be to stay there, but even 2 ½ years of him could be worth quite a bit.
It’s moments like these that online trade simulators were meant for, and baseballtradevalues.com was probably getting a lot of hits Saturday. That site tries to put a figure on a player’s value, while accounting for his contract status. For example, Soto’s trade value (his projected on-field worth minus his salary) is listed on the site as $193.7 million, trailing only Wander Franco ($286 million), Ronald Acuña Jr. ($221.2 million) and José Ramírez ($209 million) in all of baseball.
So when using the site’s trade simulator, the goal is to line up a deal in which the Nationals get around $193.7 million in value in exchange for Soto. Let’s have some fun with this.
For the purposes of this exercise, we’ll assume all no-trade clauses will be waived as needed. All prospect rankings are from MLB Pipeline, and trade value figures in parentheses are in millions:
Deal No. 1: Soto ($193.7) to the Red Sox for SS Marcelo Mayer ($55.4), 1B Trison Casas ($39.7), RHP Brayan Bello ($28.8), RHP Tanner Houck ($27.1), 2B Nick Yorke ($25.2) and SS Xander Bogaerts ($22).
If a player like Soto comes available, you immediately start thinking about wealthy teams already in contention – the franchises that can benefit right away from adding him and have the wherewithal to keep him long term. The Dodgers and Yankees fit that description, but they have only one top-25 prospect each.
In this deal, Boston would be giving up the No. 10, 14, 44 and 64 prospects — and Bogaerts, a four-time All-Star who can become a free agent after this season. If Washington feels it can extend him, would a trade like this make sense?
Deal No. 2: Soto ($193.7) to the Cardinals for OF Dylan Carlson ($72.8), 3B Jordan Walker ($61.6), 2B Nolan Gorman ($32.4) and OF Tyler O’Neill ($28.3).
Walker is the game’s ninth-ranked prospect, and Carlson and Gorman are high draft picks who have reached the big leagues but haven’t turned 24 yet. O’Neill hit 34 homers last year.
Deal No. 3: Soto ($193.7) to the Tigers for OF Riley Greene ($72), 1B Spencer Torkelson ($64.1) and LHP Tarik Skubal ($55).
Washington would receive baseball’s No. 1 prospect (Greene), the top pick in the 2020 draft (Torkelson) and a 25-year-old (Skubal) who has shown promise in the majors. Detroit made a deal like this when it acquired Miguel Cabrera, but that worked out only because the Tigers were able to keep him long term. It makes little sense for them to bring in Soto unless they’re prepared to spend what it takes to hold on to him.
Deal No. 4: Soto ($193.7) to the Giants for RHP Logan Webb ($79), SS Marco Luciano ($54.3), LHP Kyle Harrison ($39.2) and OF Luis Matos ($19.3).