Contract Bridge

The play most likely to succeed in a given set of circumstances is generally referred to as the percentage play. Anyone who subscribes steadily to percentage plays is bound to do well in the long run, even though the percentage play might occasionally fail.

Consider this deal where South is in six spades, which appears ironclad at the start. But when he cashes the ace of spades at trick two, West shows out, and complications set in.

South has no ready entry to dummy for a spade finesse, and he also has a potential heart loser to worry about. So, faced with these difficulties, he has a problem to solve: how best to try to escape the loss of two tricks.

The actual declarer failed very quickly. After playing the ace of spades, he cashed the A- K of hearts and so had to go down one.

It is true that after cashing one top heart, South could have led the king and another spade to establish a trump entry to dummy, planning to lead a heart later and finesse. However, this line of play would have failed if West had started with the Q- x of hearts.

The proper line of play -the percentage play -- would have succeeded. At trick three, declarer should lead a low heart to the nine! East wins, but whatever he returns, South has a heart entry to dummy for the marked spade finesse.

The bidding tells declarer that West is very likely to have a 6- 5 or 6- 6 distribution. It follows, therefore, that he cannot have as many as three hearts. Once this is established, it becomes clear that a low heart play at trick three is virtually certain to secure the contract.