Derby winner looks solid at Pimlico
Anyone who watched Always Dreaming win the Kentucky Derby two weeks ago would be hardpressed to find any flaws within.
With back-to-back Grade 1 victories by a combined 7 3/4 lengths, Always Dreaming is fully capable today of becoming the fourth dual winner of the Derby and Preakness in six years. He has a decisive victory, at Churchill Downs, over the previous year’s male juvenile champion and only other Grade 1 winner in the Preakness, Arkansas Derby hero Classic Empire.
As a son of 2012 Derby and Preakness runner-up Bodemeister, the brilliantly fast winner of that year’s Arkansas Derby, Always Dreaming should have no problems with the mile-and-three-sixteenths distance.
Trainer Todd Pletcher’s 0-for-8 Preakness record might cause the bettor a little more concern.
For someone with a record-tying
48 Derby starters, Pletcher is almost indifferent regarding the Preakness. His best Preakness finish is third in 2000 with Impeachment, one of only three Derby starters he has taken to Pimlico. His only previous Derby winner, Super Saver, that year’s Arkansas Derby runner-up, finished eighth in 2010.
With two Belmont Stakes victories to his credit, Pletcher conditions his young horses for the spring classics — one reason that he may never have a Triple Crown winner. Wheeling a horse back in two weeks, as for the Preakness, goes against the grain in the Pletcher playbook.
But a Preakness victory, which would be the fifth consecutive of his 3-year-old season, would put the stamp of greatness on Always Dreaming before the June 10 Belmont Stakes at New York’s Belmont Park, Pletcher’s home base.
“I think he’s pretty special,” Pletcher said. “We’re going to find out more, but when you look at what he has done this year, winning his first couple of races by open lengths, winning the Florida Derby and the Kentucky Derby by the margins he did, it’s pretty exceptional. It’s pretty rare that you see that.”
John Velazquez’ stalk-andpounce ride of Always Dreaming at Churchill Downs resembled that of Stewart Elliott’s on Smarty Jones in the 2004 Derby, although in Lion Heart, Smarty put away a classier rival than State of Honor, trainer Mark Casse’s “other” horse May 6 in Louisville.
Smarty Jones followed two weeks later as the most decisive winner in Preakness history, by 11
3/4 lengths, and it is still possible to spark a debate about whether that or the Rebel Stakes, his second of three races at Oaklawn Park, represented his finest performance.
The same question is being asked of Always Dreaming that was posed of Smarty Jones: Can he put away a horse in the stretch? Smarty Jones failed that test in the Belmont Stakes, Birdstone winning by one length while Smarty, in the only defeat of his career, finished eight lengths clear of the third-place horse.
Many envision Always Dreaming or Classic Empire, one or the other, winning the Preakness. That scenario played out in 1990 when Summer Squall, second in Louisville, turned the tables on Derby winner Unbridled. It backfired spectacularly in 1976 when Honest Pleasure and Derby winner Bold Forbes hooked up in a speed duel and Arkansas Derby star Elocutionist represented the first Triple Crown race winner for an Oaklawn Park-based horse.
Oaklawn has since become a trendy spot for Triple Crown hopefuls, Oxbow in 2013 becoming the
10th Preakness winner with “OP” in his past performances. With five Oaklawn starters in today’s race, local patrons have their choice of speed horses (Classic Empire and Arkansas Derby runner-up Conquest Mo Money) or closers (Hence, Lookin At Lee), plus a last-out stakes winner (Senior Investment) who’s crossed the wire first in four of his previous five efforts.
Hall of Famer Steve Assmussen sees the pace as “extremely critical” for his two horses, especially for Kentucky Derby runner-up and confirmed late closer Lookin At Lee.
“You do see a couple of horses that are capable of pace, three total
possibly,” Asmussen said. “If somebody isn’t away cleanly, it will change the complexion of the race tremendously. I’ve always said when you’re thiking about a race for an individual horse, you’re imagining the perfect scenario for that horse. That’s sometimes hard to create.”
Tactical speed often decides the Preakness, whether it be Secretariat circling the field on the first turn in 1973 or American Pharoah cruising on the lead over a sloppy track in 2015. Always Dreaming is fast but, like Smarty Jones, not a need-the-lead type. Classic Empire, if this becomes a two-horse race, is more dependent on racing luck.
Of Always Dreaming, Asmussen said, “He’s a horse that’s good enough to win the Kentucky Derby, so that’s a pretty good place to start.”
That said, “Your preparation is for the individuals you lead over. I do believe watching this year’s group of Preakness horses, it’s a very sound and attractive group of horse. It ought to be a very exciting race.”