Contract Bridge

Declarer is often presented with a choice of two lines of play, either of which could be right (or wrong) depending on how the defenders’ cards are divided.

In such cases, declarer should naturally opt for the play that offers the greatest chance of success. While it is true that the right play will occasionally turn out wrong, and the wrong play will occasionally turn out right, over the long haul declarer will surely be better off if he makes the play favored by the percentages.

Here is a typical case. West leads the queen of clubs, which holds, and another club, East taking the A-K. East then returns a trump.

Having lost the first three

tricks, South must now decide whether to take a heart finesse or a diamond finesse. Each has an equal chance of winning, so it might seem that one could mentally toss a coin to settle the issue. But actually, there is a clear-cut percentage play available.

The proper approach is to win the trump return, lead a heart to the ace, ruff a heart, cross to dummy with a trump and ruff the ten of hearts.

In the actual layout, the king of hearts falls on the ten, so no finesse at all is necessary. Declarer eventually discards his losing diamond on the heart queen and makes four spades.

The advantage in the recommended line of play is really more a matter of common sense than anything else. If declarer relies on a straight finesse in either suit, he has just a 50 percent chance of succeeding. But if he first tries to drop the king of hearts by ruffing two rounds of the suit, he materially increases his chance of success. At the same time, he preserves his 50 percent chance of winning a finesse in diamonds if the heart king does not fall.

Tomorrow: Lightning strikes

again.