No. 2 Oklahoma (12-1) vs. No. 3 Georgia (12-1)
When: Jan. 1, 4 p.m. CST Site: Rose Bowl, Pasadena, Calif. TV: ESPN KEYS FOR OKLAHOMA Get the defense off the field. The Sooners have scored at least 29 points against everyone they’ve faced this season, with Ohio State, Iowa State and Texas the only teams to keep them below 38 points. While the Big 12 is not littered with defenses as good as Georgia’s, Oklahoma can probably score on just about anyone given the opportunity.
Mayfield at his best. Maybe the easiest thing to point out in any bowl game is the necessity for the Heisman Trophy winner to thrive for his team to find success. QB Baker Mayfield threw for multiple TD passes in every game (and at least three in all but three). He threw for at least 243 yards in every game (and surpassed the 300-yard plateau eight times). He had 13 TDs and no interceptions in his last four games.
KEYS FOR GEORGIA
Establish the run. The Bulldogs rank 10th in the country in rushing offense, notching 263.5 yards per game behind the tandem of Nick Chubb and Sony Michel. It probably would have been this way regardless of who was playing quarterback, but the need to play true freshman Jake Fromm after Jacob Eason’s injury crystallized the need for Georgia to rely mostly on its running game. Fromm is plenty efficient when he needs to throw, but this team’s strength is still on the ground. It should be able to do some solid work against an Oklahoma defense ranked 41st nationally against the run
(144.2 yards per game allowed). Contain the
pass. It’s a given that
Mayfield will get his yardage somehow, but the striking thing about his dominant season
(4,340 yards, 41 TDs, 5 INTs) is the 16.6 yards per completion. On three occasions he topped 20 yards per completion, and that figure never dipped below 12.75 yards per completion. Georgia’s exceptional pass defense (No. 2 in passing yards allowed, No. 8 in pass efficiency defense) hasn’t seen a test like this all year, and it needs to keep Mayfield from securing too many chunk plays.
PREDICTION
Oklahoma 31-24. The Sooners haven’t lost since early October, though the Georgia defense is simply better-equipped to deal with the challenges Mayfield, RB Rodney Anderson and the rest of the Oklahoma offense present than any team Lincoln Riley’s bunch has seen this year. Likewise, there isn’t an offensive juggernaut like Oklahoma roaming the SEC East, and this will be the biggest test for the Georgia defense. Here’s guessing the consistent Mayfield gets the better of the Bulldogs, but it won’t be an easy chore.