No. 1 Clemson (12-1) vs. No. 4 Alabama (11-1)
When: Jan. 1, 7:45 p.m. CST Site: Superdome, New Orleans TV: ESPN KEYS FOR CLEMSON
No fear, no problem. The best thing going for Clemson is that of the 129 FBS programs that are not Alabama, it has the most reason to feel comfortable lining up against the Crimson Tide based on its recent history. Yes, Auburn took down Nick Saban’s juggernaut in this year’s Iron Bowl, but Clemson has plenty of contributors from teams that split the last two national title games against the Crimson Tide. Bryant poised in the face of pressure. Alabama is certain to create problems for Clemson QB Kelly Bryant, who was not the Tigers’ starter the last two season. Given roughly a month to get ready, Saban will be prepared to throw everything at Bryant, who has already seen solid defenses from the likes of Auburn, Florida State, N.C. State, South Carolina and
Virginia Tech this season. KEYS FOR ALABAMA Patience on the ground. The Crimson Tide is poised to receive a dose of its own medicine. It owns a fabulous running game anchored by QB Jalen Hurts and TBs Damien Harris and Bo Scarbrough, but to make it to the national title game Alabama will have to solve a Clemson rush defense that ranks 14th (112.8 yards allowed per game). This is a contest that will mirror a typical Alabama Louisiana State contest; a three-yard gain is usually going to be a good play. Alabama can’t abandon its strength just because of Clemson’s stinginess.
Turnover time. This feels like the sort of game that could easily turn on a defensive touchdown. While Clemson enters the semifinals at plus-5 in turnover margin, Alabama checks in at plus-12 — a function both of an offense that takes care of the ball and a defense with a recent history of scoring plenty of points on its own. With Alabama a little less multi-dimensional on offense (though ultra-efficient when it does throw), it might need the boost of a converting a takeaway or two into points a bit more.
PREDICTION
Clemson 20-17. The national title game two years ago was decided in large part by a gutsy Alabama onside kick that paid considerable dividends. Last season’s championship game between these two programs went down to the closing seconds. Chances are, this game will be even as well. While the Tigers have allowed just 30 points in their last four games and have won six in a row since a bye week, Alabama has plenty to prove as it comes off its first loss. Expect another down-to-the-wire showdown.