Derby 144 prediction: It’s ‘Magic’

LOUISVILLE, Ky. — This is a Kentucky Derby prediction column, and for the sake of your pocketbook, perhaps you should read no further.

My attempts at picking a winner in America’s greatest horse race put me on a par with Prissy, Scarlett O’Hara’s handservant in “Gone With the Wind,” regarding “birthin’ babies.” In other words, I don’t know much.

Furthermore, as you might have read in this space, if the people writing about horse racing knew anything about it, they wouldn’t be writing about it.

But anyone who knows that a horse has four legs, whether a racetrack patron or not, feels compelled to pick a winner in the Kentucky Derby. No self-respecting horse player can sit this one out, and anyone who guesses the winner is entitled to gloat for a few minutes (when the Oaklawn Park press box was packed and jumping years ago, it ranged from five to 15 minutes, depending on the bettor and sometimes whether an “obnoxious alert” had been sounded prior to post time).

I don’t have the exact figures on hand but would guess that my record in picking Derby winners is below .500. Bret Bielema might have a better winning percentage in Southeastern Conference football games at Arkansas.

But like Scott Fitzgerald’s boat against the current in “The Great Gatsby,” I press onward, hoping my Derby selection today runs faster than in some years.

For the record, it has been three years since I stabbed the Derby winner correctly. American Pharoah, it might be added, made a lot of us look smart in

2015. I settled on Exaggerator in 2016 — the mudlark from California finishing second at Churchill Downs but winning the Preakness two weeks later. Classic Empire got mugged at the start last year, finishing fourth to Always Dreaming before almost winning the Preakness in what proved the last start for the Arkansas Derby winner.

A few Derby selections here have been more clairvoyant than others — Orb in 2013, Sea Hero in 1993 and Silver Charm in 1987 brought modest financial reward. One or two, four or more, are hardly worth remembering. Picking Borrego over beloved local star Smarty Jones in 2004 brought verbal zinging at the track. Badger Land in 1986, Valiant Nature in 1994 and, yes, McCraken in

2017 were made with the same lack of insight.

So it’s Derby time again, Bob, and which horse do you like?

First, let’s toss a few horses, stinging them with barbs similar to those once hurled by the late Louisville scribe Mike Barry.

* Firenze Fire: Chances improve if 10-furlong race is switched to one-turn mile. Otherwise, pass.

* Free Drop Billy: A Grade

1 winner down the road at Keeneland last fall, this one arrives at Churchill Downs virtually in the dead of night. Might be when he finishes.

* Promises Fulfilled: Stablemate of Free Drop Billy has good chance to lead early, finish last.

* Combatant: Guessing there’s a Kentucky Derby winner some year for trainer Steve Asmussen. Didn’t like this one before he drew post 20.

* Bravazo: Not the worst horse that Wayne Lukas has entered in the Kentucky Derby, but he’s 50-1 in the morning line for a reason.

* Solomini: Has stumped the minds of Minolta, in this case Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert. Look for him to win a big race down the road, but leaning against here.

* Instilled Regard: Nicely bred horse seems stuck in a rut. FYI: Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer finished third in last year’s Derby with Battle of Midway.

* Noble Indy: Fourth best Derby horse in Todd Pletcher’s barn doesn’t make him a clunker by any means. This field just happens to be extremely competitive.

* Lone Sailor: Worked well enough at Churchill Downs the other day to crash the exotics at a huge price. Would not be surprised if he finished in bottom five.

* Hofburg: Bill Mott trainee could be overbet. * Enticed: A Louisville friend collects nicely on a future-book wager if this one wins. Two graded wins but might not handle Derby’s mile and a quarter.

So, is anyone left?

I’m willing to toss Justify and Magnum Moon, two undefeated horses trying to become the first unraced 2-year-old to win the Derby since Apollo in 1882. Call my reasoning suspect, but if horses like Curlin (2007) and Pulpit (1997) couldn’t break the jinx then I don’t see anyone else succeeding. Demand value on Justify, going no lower than his 3-1 program odds. Arkansas Derby winner Magnum Moon, 6-1 in the program, needs to run straight in the stretch but can take this with a stalking trip like that seen in the Rebel.

Opinions vary on which Pletcher horse is best — Magnum Moon, Vino Rosso, Noble Indy or Audible. It might mean something, or not, that John Velazquez, Pletcher’s go-to rider for years and last year’s Derby winner on the trainer’s Always Dreaming, chose Vino Rosso, the Wood Memorial winner. That said, toss Audible, the Florida Derby winner, at your own risk.

Bolt d’Oro is gutsy as they come but risks burnout after two tough races in California, the last against Justify. My Boy Jack, Oaklawn’s Southwest winner in the mud, is sure to pass horses in the stretch, but how many? Flameaway, although in the capable hands of Mark Casse, is a reach.

Mendelssohn, a stakes winner on turf and dirt, looks playable at 5-1 morning-line odds. I’m a little wary about the quality of horses he trounced in Dubai but know that, with Aidan O’Brien training and Ryan Moore riding, the colt is in a master’s hands. Mendelssohn would be no surprise, perhaps with “The Wedding March” (by Felix Mendelssohn) trailing him down the stretch.

The pick is Good Magic, last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner — as a maiden — and apt to top out in his third start at 3 for Chad Brown. He needs to improve on his winning Blue Grass effort but at anything close to his 12-1 early odds he becomes too obvious to overlook.

Thanks for reading, good luck at the races, and remember that mixing sentiment and money often leaves only sentiment.