Massive overhaul necessary for Hogs
I don’t know how many of us have fully grasped the magnitude of the transformation already underway in the Arkansas Razorbacks football program.
It may end up being one of the most significant program reconstructions we have ever seen in college football outside of NCAA-sanctioned or influenced penalization. We have certainly never seen anything like it in Arkansas.
The shift begins in the numbers. Every team in the Football Bowl Subdivision, formerly known as Division 1-A, has 85 full scholarships. Teams sign about 20-25 recruits every year to keep the numbers up as players matriculate through their college careers.
The numbers are maintained through mitigating factors. Some players get injured, some transfer in, some transfer out and some never make it to campus at all.
That is part of what the NCAA and the Southeastern Conference have tried to address with other rules. SEC teams, most notoriously Ole Miss, became known for oversigning more than 30 commitments per class knowing many of them would never last or qualify in the first place.
The SEC limits each signing class to 28 players. First-year head coach Chad Morris is already at 24 two and a half months before National Signing Day. Programs are able to finagle the numbers by having some players sign early and others sign late to apply them to different recruiting cycles.
A certain former Clemson quarterback would not apply to any recruiting numbers, only the full number of scholarships.
Morris only signed 18 in his first class in February, including several early enrollees. He will graduate 16 seniors from this year’s team, which is about average. Attrition usually leaves programs with 15-20 seniors instead of a full 25.
Former Arkansas head coach Bret Bielema averaged less than 16 seniors per year despite an emphasis on a competitive walk-on system and redshirt seasons.
The shift this offseason will be the unprecedented number of departures by non-seniors. Programs such as Alabama and LSU are used to watching at least a handful of players leave early to enter the NFL Draft. They are equipped to do so with highly-ranked recruiting classes every year.
Arkansas has no such luxury. The Razorbacks only ever see 2-3 underclassmen depart the program for positive reasons in the offseason, but we could see more than a dozen players leave the program with eligibility remaining.
The process began early in the season as senior Jonathan Nance figured he had no place in Morris and offensive coordinator Joe Craddock’s offense despite leading the team in receiving a year ago. He is able to transfer to another program for his final year of eligibility under a new NCAA rule, which allows players to redshirt with four games or less played in a season.
Nance is one of seven players to leave the program during the season, which is another rare occurrence. Sophomore Jarrod Barnes received his release from the team earlier this month. You may remember the Cabot native for leading the Panthers to a Class 7A state basketball championship past a Malik Monk-led Bentonville squad at Bank OZK Arena.
Sophomore cornerback Chevin Calloway left the team after two games due to personal reasons neither he nor Morris fully disclosed. Offensive lineman Dylan Hays medically retired.
Sophomore defensive back Derrick Munson just announced his departure from the program on Tuesday, joining junior defensive back Nate Dalton and sophomore linebacker Kyrei Fisher. Even redshirt junior Austin Cantrell, often hailed as a budding star under Bielema, went through senior day activities two weeks ago with eyes toward leaving Fayetteville.
Any player with NFL prospects may be better off testing the professional waters this year instead of enduring another punishing season in Fayetteville. Junior middle linebacker Scoota Harris and junior defensive lineman Sosa Agim are rated highly by NFL teams. They have as much reason as anybody to get out of dodge.
A significant shakeup is also likely to occur at quarterback. Even if Kelly Bryant does not choose to transfer to Arkansas, the team’s starting quarterback likely is not on campus.
Each coach I have spoken with throughout the season emphasized the playmaking role of the quarterback in Morris and Craddock’s offense. Arkansas is more likely to hand the keys to true freshman K.J. Jefferson (6-3, 211), out of North Panola High School in Mississippi, or seek out another graduate transfer.
College quarterbacks rarely wait long-term without a path to the starting job. Ty Storey waited his chance, but he will be a senior, Cole Kelley will be a junior, Daulton Hyatt will be a sophomore and John Stephen Jones will be a redshirt freshman.
Anyone around Connor Noland would do him a favor by helping him lean toward baseball, where is a much more elite prospect and would be part of a much more prestigious program in Fayetteville.
Arkansas has six quarterbacks on the roster this season and as many as four of them are likely not to return to the team next season, meaning it is not far-fetched to see more than 30 players leave the team before next season.
That type of turnover is easy to embrace as “Morris needs his players” and believing, “We only need players that want to be here.” That works in principle, but fans must accept those ramifications.
The benefit is Morris gets to jump-start a change in culture that is desperately needed. I have argued for the past two seasons that talent is not the most significant issue for this team. Agim, Harris and senior linebacker Dre Greenlaw are just three of what are more than a handful of NFL prospects on this team.
The Razorbacks lacked leadership and resolve for the past three seasons. They wilted at even the slightest hint of adversity every time this season since a potential touchdown pass against Colorado State would have given Arkansas a 33-9 lead in the third quarter.
Bobby Petrino and Bielema stumbled as well in their first seasons, although it was Morris that posted the first 10-loss season in 125 years of Arkansas football. Petrino and Bielema built their programs on the backs of freshmen in their first years.
Morris just went 2-10 with a depth chart stocked with upperclassmen. A total of 45 true freshmen and redshirt freshmen are among 121 players on Arkansas’ full football roster.
Few of them received valuable minutes this season other than receiver Michael Woods and linebacker Bumper Pool. Noland and Jones played mop-up duty at quarterback, while Kirby Adcock, Shane Clenin, Noah Gatlin, Silas Robinson and Dalton Wagner shuffled through the patchwork offensive line throughout the year.
These numbers mean Morris’ 2-10 season wasn’t Petrino’s 5-6 first season nor Bielema’s 3-9 year. Practically, that season will come next year as Arkansas goes to work in the SEC with a field full of inexperienced freshmen and sophomores.