COVID-19 update
As a service to our readers, The Sentinel-Record publishes updates released by the city of Hot Springs and the state of Arkansas.
The following stats were posted Tuesday on the Arkansas Department of Health website:
• 174,782 cumulative confirmed cases, up
2,000 from Tuesday.
• 1,650.29 rolling seven-day average of new confirmed cases, up 51.72 from Tuesday.
• 1,970,855 PCR test reports, up 12,877 from Tuesday.
• 8.9% cumulative PCR infection rate, up from
8.8% Tuesday.
• 33,159 cumulative probable cases, up 893 from Tuesday.
• 18.4% cumulative antigen infection rate, up from 18.3% Tuesday.
• 22,516 active confirmed and probable cases, up 537 from Tuesday.
• 182,024 recoveries of confirmed and probable cases, up 2,318 from Tuesday.
• 1,110 hospitalizations, up seven from Tuesday.
• 174 cases on a ventilator, up one from Tuesday.
• 2,939 confirmed deaths, up 29 from Tuesday.
• 437 probable deaths, up nine from Tuesday.
• 1,442 nursing home deaths, up 13 from Tuesday.
• 4,587 cumulative confirmed cases in Garland County, up 62 from Tuesday.
• 48.29 rolling seven-day average of new confirmed cases, down 1.14 from Tuesday.
• 63,116 PCR and antigen test reports, up 526 from Tuesday.
• 44,702 private lab reports, up 390 from Tuesday.
• 18,414 public lab reports, up 136 from Tuesday.
• 7.8% cumulative PCR infection rate, no change from Tuesday.
• 468 active confirmed cases in Garland County, up 19 from Tuesday.
• 3,988 recoveries of confirmed cases in Garland County, up 33 from Tuesday.
• 645 cumulative probable cases in Garland County, up 27 from Tuesday.
• 161 active probable cases in Garland County, up 16 from Tuesday.
• 121 confirmed deaths, no change from Tuesday.
• 18 probable deaths, no change from Tuesday.
Modeling the University of Arkansas for Medical Sciences Fay W. Boozman College of Public Health released Tuesday predicted active infections will peak at 27,868 on April 12.
The Health Department reported 22,516 active confirmed and probable cases Wednesday. The 23,066 active infections reported Saturday is the current peak.
Hospitalizations peaked for the second- straight day Wednesday, reaching 1,110. UAMS predicted 1,839 hospitalizations by April 12. Worst-case estimates forecast 54,818 active infections and 3,617 hospitalizations by mid-April.
By mid-February, confirmed cases will have increased 48% from the 174,782 reported Wednesday, according to the model. Confirmed deaths will have reached 3,751, a 28% increase from the 2,939 reported Wednesday.
The model said active infections will remain above 20,000 through July.
“While we have seen fluctuations in the forecasts and projections in the past weeks, the take-away message from each of the College of Public Health COVID- 19 forecasts has remained the same,” the modeling report said. “Our early reports may have seemed speculative, especially to those disinclined to believe the seriousness of what the state was facing or who did not understand infectious disease modeling, but they have proved to be extremely accurate in the long-term.
“… As a consequence of more rapid viral spread, the state’s health care system will be challenged dealing with the consequences of these numbers — from treating people who will require intensive medical care to mobilizing the public to continue to practice mitigation behaviors. And, until the vaccines are distributed, there is no indication the trends we are now seeing are likely to change.”
The 2,000 new confirmed cases reported Wednesday raised the state’s infection curve more than 3%, pushing the rolling seven-day average of new confirmed cases to 1,650.29. The moving average peaked at 1,666.29 Dec. 9.
“Today’s high number of cases is concerning as we’re two days away from Christmas,” Gov. Asa Hutchinson said Wednesday in a news release. “This is frequently a time to gather with our family in large groups, but this year that presents an increased risk of spreading COVID-19. So let’s plan with our safety guidelines in mind. Please protect yourself and your family.”
The 468 active confirmed cases reported Wednesday in Garland County set a new peak, surpassing the 454 reported Monday. The 62 new confirmed cases reported Wednesday in the county replaced the 80 reported the previous Wednesday in the rolling seven-day average, lowering the curve more than 2%.