No explanation for delta’s rise, fall

The updated predictive model the University of Arkansas for Medical Sciences Fay W. Boozman College of Public Health released Tuesday forecast a continuation in the decline of new cases and hospitalizations the state has seen over the last five weeks.

Numerous indicators suggest the delta variant is no longer in the ascendant after it pushed the state’s infection curve to a non-winter peak and caused a record number of hospitalizations during a six-week surge that started in July. The quick rise and fall defies explanation, the college said.

“The reason for the decline is unclear,” the college said in the report it released Tuesday.

It surmised natural acquired immunity might be the cause, given that the state’s vaccination rate hasn’t increased significantly since the college’s last update.

“More research needs to be done, especially on the likelihood a person might develop natural immunity,” the report said. “Even so, the occurrence of natural immunity for some proportion of those who have had a previous COVID-19 infection and survived may be a possible explanation for the pandemic following a wave pattern. In suggesting this possibility, it in no way implies people should consider foregoing COVID-19 vaccinations, even if they have had previous infections.”

The report said research published in scientific journals indicated natural immunity doesn’t accrue to everyone who’s been infected. It said those relying on natural acquired immunity in lieu of vaccination are tempting fate.

“To forego vaccination is like playing Russian roulette with multiple loaded chambers,” the report said.

As a service to our readers, The Sentinel-Record publishes updates released by the city of Hot Springs and the state of Arkansas.

The Arkansas Department of Health is no longer reporting confirmed and probable cases separately. The following stats were posted Tuesday on the Health Department’s website:

• 486,853 cumulative cases, up 1,401 from Monday.

• 1,380.29 rolling seven-day average of new cases, down 20.42 from Monday.

• 3,842,223 PCR test reports, up 7,485 from Monday.

• 9.4% cumulative PCR infection rate, no change from Monday.

• 14,225 active cases, down 779 from Monday.

• 3,913 active juvenile cases, down 219 from Monday.

• 465,004 recoveries, up 2,163 from Monday.

• 3,717,390 vaccine doses received, up 40,070 from Monday.

• 2,850,663 doses given, up 7,228 from Monday.

• 993 hospitalizations, down 34 from Monday.

• 278 cases on ventilators, down 11 from Monday.

• 439 ICU patients, down one from Monday.

• 7,499 deaths, up 17 from Monday.

• 2,189 nursing home deaths, no change from Monday.

• 15,388 cumulative cases in Garland County, up 32 from Monday.

• 33.14 rolling seven-day average, down 0.29 from Monday.

• 151,891 PCR and antigen test reports, up 329 from Monday.

• 10.3% cumulative PCR infection rate, no change from Monday.

• 329 active cases in Garland County, down 18 from Monday.

• 14,693 recoveries in Garland County, up 50 from Monday.

• 366 deaths, no change from Monday.