College doubtful dual surge can be avoided

Can Arkansas avoid a delta and omicron surge in the coming weeks? The University of Arkansas for Medical Sciences Fay W. Boozman College of Public Health is doubtful.

“Perhaps, but the prospects are not good,” the college said in the report it released with its updated predictive model. “We should expect another substantial surge in the state beginning in mid-January or early February driven by both the delta and omicron variants. As Omicron becomes dominant, hospitalizations will begin to surge, as well, perhaps beyond levels we have previously seen.”

The college said the rise of omicron increases the risk of more serious infections that cause severe disease and hospitalizations.

“Because of its properties, omicron has the potential to create a significant crisis for the state’s hospital and emergency response systems,” the college said.

Hospitalizations have fallen 8% since Friday after rising more than 70% in the three weeks that followed Thanksgiving.

“Here in Arkansas no one can be 100% confident of what’s going to happen in January and February,” Gov. Asa Hutchinson said Tuesday at his weekly press briefing. “I know right now we have about 500 hospitalizations. A year ago we had over 1,000 hospitalizations. We’re at about the 50% level, and also we’re at about 10,000 fewer active cases. We’re in a much better position. We’ve managed our way through this, and we’ll do it in the future.”

As a service to our readers, The Sentinel-Record publishes updates released by the city of Hot Springs and the state of Arkansas.

The Arkansas Department of Health is no longer reporting confirmed and probable cases separately. The following stats were posted Wednesday on the Health Department’s website:

• 545,934 cumulative cases, up 897 from Tuesday.

• 774.86 rolling seven-day average of new cases, down 18.57 from Tuesday.

• 4,358,267 PCR test reports, up 7,452 from Tuesday.

• 9.1% cumulative PCR infection rate, no change from Tuesday.

• 7,961 active cases, up 391 from Tuesday.

• 1,775 active juvenile cases, up 53 from Tuesday.

• 528,788 recoveries, up 500 from Tuesday.

• 4,408,200 vaccine doses received, no change from Tuesday.

• 3,640,382 doses given, up 11,511 from Tuesday.

• 494 hospitalizations, down two from Tuesday.

• 98 cases on ventilators, up two from Tuesday.

• 199 ICU patients, down three from Tuesday.

• 9,007 deaths, up 10 from Tuesday.

• 2,290 nursing home deaths, no change from Tuesday.

• 16,526 cumulative cases in Garland County, up 32 from Tuesday.

• 22.29 rolling seven-day average of new cases, up 2.15 from Tuesday.

• 169,981 PCR and antigen test reports, up 244 from Tuesday.

• 10.1% cumulative PCR infection rate, no change from Tuesday.

• 165 active cases in Garland County, up 11 from Tuesday.

• 15,948 recoveries, up 20 from Tuesday.

• 413 deaths, up one from Tuesday.