Steep rise in cases signals a potential winter surge

The 1,314 new cases reported Thursday were the highest daily total reported in almost 13 weeks, raising the state’s infection curve to its highest level since late September.

Thursday’s case report upset the almost two-week plateau the curve had traced after its post-Thanksgiving spike, with the rolling seven-day average of new cases surpassing 800 for the first time since Dec. 8.

Active cases topped 8,000 for the first time since Dec. 12, reaching their highest level since early October. Hospitalizations remained flat, staying under 500 for the third consecutive day.

The University of Arkansas for Medical Sciences Fay W. Boozman College of Public Health said mask requirements may need to be reinstated to blunt a potential winter surge.

“It may also become necessary for governments, businesses and other places where people gather to implement face mask and social distancing mandates,” the college said in the report it issued earlier this week with its updated predictive model.

Gov. Asa Hutchinson said Tuesday a reinstatement of any public health mandates enacted during the pandemic is “off the table.”

“My guideline is whether we’re managing everything with our existing resources and protocols, or whether any extra action needs to be taken,” he said at his weekly press briefing. “We’re managing it. There’s no need to redeclare an emergency, even though we take it seriously.

“It’s important for our children to go to school. It’s important for our businesses not to be interrupted. We are open. We’re not going to be doing what New York’s done. We’re not going to give people a false choice of either we’re going to shut down your business or we’re going to be imposing mandates.”

As a service to our readers, The Sentinel-Record publishes updates released by the city of Hot Springs and the state of Arkansas.

The Arkansas Department of Health is no longer reporting confirmed and probable cases separately. The following stats were posted Thursday on the Health Department’s website:

• 547,248 cumulative cases, up 1,314 from Wednesday.

• 847.57 rolling seven-day average of new cases, up 72.71 from Wednesday.

• 4,364,733 PCR test reports, up 6,466 from Wednesday.

• 9.1% cumulative PCR infection rate, no change from Wednesday.

• 8,594 active cases, up 633 from Wednesday.

• 1,842 active juvenile cases, up 67 from Wednesday.

• 529,456 recoveries, up 668 from Wednesday.

• 4,448,220 vaccine doses received, up 40,020 from Wednesday.

• 3,652,689 doses given, up 12,307 from Wednesday.

• 495 hospitalizations, up one from Wednesday.

• 107 cases on ventilators, up nine from Wednesday.

• 191 ICU patients, down eight from Wednesday.

• 9,020 deaths, up 13 from Wednesday.

• 2,290 nursing home deaths, no change from Wednesday.

• 16,546 cumulative cases in Garland County, up 20 from Wednesday.

• 22.14 rolling seven-day average of new cases, down 0.15 from Wednesday.

• 170,125 PCR and antigen test reports, up 144 from Wednesday.

• 10.1% cumulative PCR infection rate, no change from Wednesday.

• 176 active cases in Garland County, up 11 from Wednesday.

• 15,957 recoveries in Garland County, up nine from Wednesday.

• 413 deaths, no change from Wednesday.