Health officer: COVID numbers are ‘pretty bad across the board’
According to recent numbers from the Arkansas Department of Health, Garland County saw 284 new positive cases of COVID-19 over the past week, compared to 157 and 101, respectively, in the previous two weeks.
Garland County Health Officer Dr. Gene Shelby said on Monday this represents 40.6 new positive cases per day, compared to 22.4 and 14.4 previously.
“I just now sent my report to our task force for this past week and, really, things are looking pretty bad across the board in terms of our numbers,” he said.
Shelby said the increase is “significantly higher than what we’ve run in a long time,” but not completely unexpected due to the recent spread of the omicron variant, which is likely already in Arkansas and Garland County.
“We just don’t have much capacity as far as doing sequencing to determine it for certain,” he said. “But I think based upon everything that we’re seeing that it’s here. … One thing that may be a trend going into the future is that we only had 903 tests actually done, and it was all kind of based upon the database from the state health department. And so our positivity rate is up to 31.5%, which is significantly higher than we’ve ever had.”
The 31.5% rate compares to 9.9% the previous week and 7% the week prior making it the highest recorded positivity rate for the county throughout the whole pandemic, surpassing the previous high of 25.9% in January.
One statistic that has not risen significantly is that of active cases which Shelby reported is at 182, only up 15 from the previous week. The number of recorded deaths increased to 420 total, up by nine,
which marks the highest weekly increase, 10, since the week ending Nov. 1, 2021.
“Though this rapid spread is most likely influenced or even caused by the omicron variant, that has not been definitively determined in Arkansas yet. But, with it and the holidays, I would be surprised if this trend doesn’t continue,” Shelby said.
“With this raging spread, I think it is only a matter of time before we see significant increases in our hospitalizations and deaths. Fortunately, studies are showing that omicron variant causes milder disease, but we have such a high percentage of unvaccinated people I think our health facilities will be greatly impacted,” he said.
One new issue Shelby sees going forward is an increasing use of home testing kits for COVID-19. He noted his concern is due to a lot of results not being reported and, therefore, causing inaccuracies in official numbers. He believes, overall, that people testing at home will be a good thing, though.
“Most of these home tests, they recommend that you report your findings to your health care provider,” he said. “But I’m sure that a lot of people won’t.”
The test, he noted, is simple and accurate if used correctly. Many school districts will use them this coming year. Shelby warns those who receive a positive result to take it seriously even if they do not feel too bad physically.
“I think that that’s something that’s hopeful in that we’re having more availability and use of the rapid tests,” he said. “But then you get down to the people that are doing it at home and they get a positive test and they either don’t know what to do or don’t want to do what they know they’re supposed to do. And so I think that’s kind of a concern about the home tests in that people, even though they know they’re positive, they say, ‘Well, I feel I’m OK so I’m probably not going to be that contagious.’ They need to isolate for sure.”
While the Hot Springs/Garland County COVID-19 Task Force did not meet this week or last, based on the recent spikes in cases, Shelby said there will very likely be increased hospitalizations. Sometimes the hospitalization spikes do not occur until a couple of weeks after the case spikes, though.
“People don’t get as sick and need hospitalization,” he said. “And the vaccines are effective against omicron but really only if you get the booster shot. So people that have just gotten, you know, the first or second dose are still at risk for the omicron variant. But a lot of it kind of comes down to numbers. You got this, you know, highly contagious virus in the community and even if 50% of the people are unlikely to get it (are vaccinated), that’s still at least 50% that are really susceptible to really getting it.”
Shelby said it’s going to be a challenge and the holidays were definitely a factor last year and “there’s no reason to not expect that they’re going to be a factor this year, and I think that we’re seeing the early signs of that. So I don’t expect any real good news over the next few weeks. I continue to strongly encourage vaccinations and the wearing of masks anytime you are around people you don’t know or think they might be at risk of being infected.”