SEOUL COULD PAY IF CONFLICT ESCALATES
larger conflict on the Korean Peninsula.
North Korea has a 1.2-millionstrong military, and Seoul, the capital of U.S. ally South Korea, sits 35 miles from the demilitarized zone marking the border. Conventional weapons — rockets, missiles, artillery — could devastate South Korea even if the U.S. military destroyed North Korea’s nuclear sites.
That leaves 25 million South Koreans vulnerable, along with 28,000 U.S. troops stationed there.
“Then you get into a situation where the United States has started a war with large-scale South Korean casualties,” said Malcolm Chalmers, deputy director-general of the Royal United Services Institute for Defense and Security Studies in London. “Even if you could be assured you take out all the nuclear and missile capabilities, North Korea also has significant conventional retaliatory capabilities. That could turn parts of Seoul into Aleppo (Syria), and that’s the fear.”
Trump has talked tough on North Korea, a sharp contrast from President Obama, who appeared reluctant to further exacerbate tensions verbally. Instead, Obama pushed for international sanctions to squeeze North Korea economically.
Trump has combined bellicose rhetoric with pressure on China to do more to solve the problem, given its leverage over North Korea’s repressive regime, which could collapse without economic help from its giant neighbor. China agreed to help Trump but sees a value in North Korea as a buffer against U.S. troops and a stalwart American ally in the region.
And it worries about a flood of North Koreans crossing into China if the regime collapses.
World leaders agree North Korea is led by a brutal dictator, and Kim is well aware what happens to non-nuclear countries when the United States decides it’s time for regime change, Chalmers said, citing the overthrow of dictators in Egypt, Iraq and Libya in recent years.
That drives North Korea’s desire for a nuclear threat against the U.S. mainland.
By becoming a danger that cannot easily be neutralized, North Korea would ensure a place at the table of nations, despite its status as a rogue state under heavy international sanctions.
“What the president appears to be doing … is giving the impression he might carry out a disarming strike if his demands are not met,” Chalmers said. “And because of who Trump is and how unpredictable he is, it may be increasing the bargaining position of the United States.
“But how do you translate that into a peaceful resolution and not get your bluff called? There’s no easy option. The Chinese don’t like what is happening in North Korea, but they also don’t want regime collapse.”