A tricky play requires guesswork

Will Rogers said, “An economist’s guess is liable to be as good as anybody else’s.” A bridge expert dislikes guessing. However, sometimes he will have to — as in this deal.

Before we get to that, though, look at the South hand. West opened one diamond, North overcalled one spade, and East made a negative double. What should South have done?

There seemed to be a lot of points in this deck. South, realizing that game was unlikely, sensibly settled for one no-trump, which was passed out. What could have happened after West led the heart five?

West might have opened one no-trump. Aces are worth more than four points, and the five-card suit gave added value. If West had opened one no-trump, probably North would have passed, and East would have transferred into two hearts, made with two overtricks given the favorable distribution.

Against one no-trump, East took the first trick with his heart queen and returned the heart six (his original fourth-highest), covered by South’s seven. Now the spotlight was on West. Did South begin with 10-7-x-x or 9-7-x-x? Worried that South had started with 10-fourth, West won with his eight, cashed the heart ace and shifted to a spade. But South won with his king, led the club king and eventually endplayed West in clubs to make his contract. Declarer won five spades, one club and one diamond (at trick 13).

However, if West had won the second heart with his ace and returned the eight, South would have lost five hearts, two diamonds and one club to go down two.