Michigan can play spoiler in Big Ten race

Michigan was removed from the College Football Playoff race on Oct. 22 with a 42-13 loss to Penn State (after losing to Michigan State) and has remained entirely off the national radar in the nearmonth since.

It’s surprising in one major sense: Even if Michigan achieved nothing of real consequence during Jim Harbaugh’s first two seasons — though the program was making obvious strides — the Wolverines were always interesting and never, ever ignored.

Not so in 2017. For the first time in the Harbaugh era, the program hasn’t been a primary topic of conversation or focus.

Don’t forget that Michigan is one of just four teams in the Big Ten with fewer than three losses, joining Ohio State, Penn State and Wisconsin. With two games left in November, the Wolverines remain mathematically eligible to claim the East Division, though it would take some help to earn a spot in the conference title game. At the very least, Michigan controls a path to the New Year’s Six, which would be a laudable achievement given the team’s youth, injuries and changing cast.

That’s the best-case scenario. At the bare minimum, this team will hold a key role during the next two weeks: Michigan can play the part of spoiler and have a dramatic impact on the Big Ten race and the makeup of the final Playoff field.

That starts Saturday at Wisconsin. While unbeaten, the Badgers have been held out of the top four due to a relatively unimpressive strength of schedule: Iowa and Northwestern are the Badgers’ best wins. Each week, Wisconsin plays to maintain its perfect record and for national respect.

It’s safe to say Michigan, flawed in some respects, will represent the Badgers’ biggest test. This is true on defense, at least, where the Wolverines rank third nationally in yards allowed per game and fourth in yards per play.

“It’ll be a challenge and also an opportunity,” Wisconsin coach Paul Chryst said.

But as good as the Wolverines defense is — and it’s been stronger than anyone expected — the Badgers are even better: Wisconsin leads the Football Bowl Subdivision in yards allowed per game and ranks third, one peg above Michigan, in yards per play. Two topfive defenses meeting in November, with temperatures set for just above freezing? Sounds like Big Ten football.

And Michigan has a shot — and maybe even more than a shot. The Wolverines have made gains since that Penn State loss, scoring at least 30 points and allowing no more than 14 in a threegame winning streak against conference also-rans Rutgers, Minnesota and Maryland. A run-heavy offense has likewise picked up the pace, even if Michigan remains too one-dimensional.

“I feel like our execution has been improving,” Harbaugh said. “I feel like our effort has been improving. And the way we finish has also been improving.”

Next week is the rivalry game with Ohio State, this time in Ann Arbor, and the quality of Michigan’s defense combined with the home-field advantage makes that a toss-up.

Michigan can still upset the apple cart. Maybe that’s not the role Harbaugh and Michigan envisioned playing in August, when despite the team’s inexperience there were expectations in some corners that the Wolverines would be a fixture in the championship race. That’s only been partially true; the Wolverines are factors, just not for the Playoff.

But there are three ways this regular season can end for Michigan. One is on fire, with wins in both games and enough momentum to earn a top-five spot in next year’s preseason poll. One is with some confidence, having split the pair with the chance to net double-figure wins with a bowl victory. And the third is with a whimper.

The Wolverines won’t sneak up on either opponent — the Badgers and Buckeyes are familiar with what a Harbaughcoached team is about, and of how Michigan could take advantage of even the slightest stumble. Amid the best start in program history, the Badgers are aware even one mistake could mean the end of their title hopes.

“When you’re in it, it’s really easy just to focus on the day and the week,” Chryst said. “I think they’ve been handling it well, and I don’t think it’s hard to do. I think it’d be hard to do it the other way, actually.”