Experts expect another big hurricane season

After a nightmarish 2017 hurricane season featuring monsters such as Harvey, Irma and Maria, many in the U.S. are hoping for a quieter year. A top forecasting group says that won’t be the case.

Meteorologist Phil Klotzbach and other experts from Colorado State University — regarded as the nation’s top seasonal hurricane forecasters — predict 14 named tropical storms, of which seven will become hurricanes. Both numbers are above the average of 12 and six, respectively. A tropical storm becomes a hurricane when its wind speed reaches 74 mph.

Of the seven predicted hurricanes, three are expected to spin into major hurricanes — category 3, 4 or 5 — with sustained wind speeds of 111 mph or greater. The group said there’s a slightly above-average chance for major hurricanes to make landfall along the U.S. coastline. Klotzbach put the chance of a major hurricane strike at 63%.

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30, though storms sometimes form outside those dates.

Colorado State’s 2017 prediction was low: The team forecast 11 tropical storms would form, of which 4 would become hurricanes. In all, 17 tropical storms developed; 10 strengthened to hurricanes.

One of the major determining factors in hurricane forecasting is whether the U.S. is in an El Niño or La Niña climate pattern, Klotzbach said.

El Niño is a natural warming of tropical Pacific Ocean water, which tends to suppress the development of Atlantic hurricanes. Its opposite, La Niña, tends to increase hurricanes in the Atlantic.

Klotzbach said we’re now in a weak La Niña event, which appears likely to diminish over the next several months.