Animal quake predictors on shaky ground

Should you worry about an earthquake if you see Fluffy or Fido acting strangely?

For thousands of years, people have claimed that odd behavior by cats, dogs, snakes, bugs and even cows could predict an imminent earthquake, but a study — apparently the first rigorous analysis of the phenomenon — found there is no strong evidence behind the claim.

Past reports often are anecdotal and unsuitable for sound investigation, the study said.

“The reports of conspicuous behavior are numerous, but it could have other causes,” said study lead author Heiko Woith, a hydrogeologist at the German Research Centre for Geosciences in Potsdam. “Many review papers on the potential of animals as earthquake precursors exist, but to the best of our knowledge, this is the first time that a statistical approach was used to evaluate the data.”

The researchers studied 729 reports of abnormal animal behavior related to 160 earthquakes and reviewed unusual behavior from more than 130 species.

According to the U.S. Geological Survey, the earliest reference to unusual animal behavior before an earthquake is from Greece in 373 BC. “Rats, weasels, snakes, and centipedes reportedly left their homes ... several days before a destructive earthquake,” the USGS said.

The USGS said it’s possible for animals to pick up on subtle ground movements a few seconds before the main quake, but that’s about it.

Only 14 of the reports record a series of observations over time.

The study was published in the Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America.