Tariffs could hurt consumers

Americans in crosshairs in trade tiff with China

Tariffs could morph into a potential threat to Americans’ finances that goes beyond paying a little extra for a steak, a TV or other everyday items that are expected to rise in price due to the escalating dispute between the U.S. and its trading partners.

The U.S. decision Friday to move ahead with tariffs on $50 billion of Chinese goods could potentially put workers’ investment portfolios and jobs in jeopardy if the trade tiff intensifies and a global trade war breaks out, Wall Street analysts and economists say.

The big risk is if President Donald Trump’s first strike in the tariff conflict is followed by counterstrikes by Beijing and others, such as Canada and the European Union, causing the disagreement to spin out of control and undermine investor and CEO confidence in the economy and markets.

“It’s the indirect effect on confidence that matters,” said Michael Gapen, chief U.S. economist at the New York offices of Barclays, a British bank.

There’s a lot more at stake for consumers than price inflation at the cash register, Gapen said. It is far worse for them financially if the trade fight causes the economy to slow, businesses to stop hiring or start firing, and markets to suffer a sizable tumble that sets their retirement accounts back in a meaningful way. The trade spat could undo much of the economic good set in motion in December by the tax cuts.

Stocks initially swooned on the news Friday, with the Dow Jones industrial average falling as much as 281 points before

“It’s the indirect effect on confidence that matters.”

Michael Gapen, of Barclays

paring some of its losses to close down 84 points for the day at 25,090.

For now, markets are waiting to see how the negotiations play out.

“One of the most significant worries for the U.S. economy and markets is the ... possibility of a prolonged volley of threats and retaliation,” said Quincy Krosby, chief market strategist at Prudential Financial.

Yet with the U.S. jobless rate at an 18year low of 3.8 percent, “it’s tough to see (tariffs) having a major impact on the consumer” unless consumer confidence falls a lot, said Don Rissmiller, an economist at Strategas Research Partners in New York.