Do you lead this, that or the other?

William Jennings Bryan, who was the Democratic Party’s presidential nominee three times, said, “Destiny is not a matter of chance; it is a matter of choice. It is not a thing to be waited for; it is a thing to be achieved.”

As we are noting this week, the destiny of a contract can rest not only on the choice of opening lead but also on how third hand reacts. In today’s deal, what should West lead against four spades after the given auction?

North’s four-spade rebid was cautious. If South had weak clubs, they would have a slam. North should have rebid four clubs, a splinter bid showing a singleton or void in clubs, four-card spade support and at least enough values for game. Yes, responder may make a splinter in opener’s firstbid suit. Just picture South with the spade ace-queen and diamond aceking. Then seven spades would have play.

West should think about each suit. A club is poor because it is declarer’s first-bid suit. Similarly, the heart queen, which looks superficially attractive, is also not recommended, because North bid the suit. A trump is potentially suicidal, maybe saving declarer a guess in the suit. That leaves diamonds, and because West has an honor in the suit, he should select the two.

Then the spotlight turns to East. The low-diamond lead in an unbid suit guarantees at least one honor in that suit. So East should confidently play his jack. Yes, perhaps partner has led from a 10high suit, but if so, he found an unsuccessful start!

The defenders take three diamond tricks now and wait for a trump winner.