4 things to know about Patriots free agency
Team vows to be better in 2023
Two months ago, Patriots owner Robert Kraft issued a letter to season ticket holders inspiring hope.
He promised no one in the organization was satisfied with an 8-9 finish. He said all elements of the football operation would be evaluated. And when fans returned for the 2023 season, Kraft anticipated an improved product on the field.
The time has come for Kraft and the Patriots to put their money where their team is.
The Pats have ranked among the lowest-spending teams in the NFL during free agency over the past three seasons. Mac Jones continues to play out his cost-controlled rookie contract. Already, the Dolphins have begun loading up by trading for All-pro corner Jalen Ramsey, and the Jets could be on the verge of adding a future Hall of Fame quarterback, Aaron Rodgers.
Meanwhile, the Patriots are entering free agency with clear roster holes in the short and long-term. They will not address all of them in the coming week, when the NFL’S “legal tampering” period will open Monday at noon, and free-agent deals will be reported hours later.
Free agents cannot officially sign until Wednesday at 4 p.m., but most major business will be concluded by the time pen can finally hit paper.
Here are four things to know about the Patriots heading into free agency.
1. The Patriots have the money and cap space
Take it from Bill Belichick.
“Our spending in 2020, our spending in 2021 and our spending in 2022, the aggregate of that, was we were 27th in the league in cash spending,” Belichick said in January. “Couple years we’re low, one year was high, but over a threeyear period, we are one of the lowest-spending teams in the league.”
There you have it. There are no excuses for the Patriots, a franchise with two losing seasons in the last three years, not to invest in their roster. Over the past two seasons, teams have engaged in cap gymnastics — stretching out cap hits and guaranteeing significant money to older players who have little chance of providing return on that investment — in order to create room. The Patriots have resigned a couple players and stood pat.
According to Over The Cap, the Pats own the eighthmost effective cap space in the league at $30.9 million. They also rank 30th, out of 32 teams, in active cash spending this season and are scheduled to rank in the bottom five next year with their current contracts.
2. Jakobi Meyers should be the first domino
The Patriots’ best inhouse free agent is also the best player available at his position and a premium position at that.
Expect Jakobi Meyers to receive a sizable deal, perhaps as soon as Monday.
Last week, the NFL Network cited league sources who believe his new contract will average between $12-14 million per year. On Sunday, ESPN reported one executive expects Meyers to receive $15 million or more per year. Whether Meyers, a 26-year-old entering his physical prime with only six years experience at the position, breaks the bank is unknown.
But, the Pats will have competition for his services and could easily get priced out. Several front offices and/or coaching staffs led by former Patriots — including Las Vegas, Tennessee, Houston, Arizona, Tampa Bay and the New York Giants — could value Meyers as highly, if not higher, than them. Meyers’ hometown team, the Falcons, are also flush with cap space and a young quarterback who could use a security blanket.
Giants wideout Sterling Shepard re-signing on Sunday boosted Meyers’ market. If Meyers leaves, expect the Patriots to pivot quickly to other free agents and perhaps pick up the phone to strike a trade. But from positional needs to the money they can spend, everything starts with Meyers.
3. Historically, Monday is quiet
Setting aside their unprecedented 2021 spending spree, the first day of NFL free agency is typically a quiet one in New England.
Historically, Belichick prefers to wait out the first wave of signings, one of the most dangerous times for front offices looking to squeeze value from free agency. He prefers to seize players who have overestimated their markets, swoop in a day later and sign them to team-friendly deals. There’s a careful balance to this approach, however, because waiting too long risks becoming uncompetitive in the market.
In 2019, the Patriots had to up their offer to freeagent wide receiver Adam Humphries after Humphries rejected their initial pitch and reached terms with the Titans. Humphries refused to re-engage after deciding on Tennessee. Last offseason, the Patriots were forced to up their offer to former Cowboys offensive lineman La’el Collins who amid contract talks took a visit to Cincinnati and ultimately signed with the Bengals.
The Patriots made a rare Day 1 splash signing in 2017, one of their best ever. That deal brought shutdown cornerback Stephon Gilmore to Foxboro, where he was eventually named a three-time Pro Bowler and the Defensive Player of the Year. Not all free-agent additions work out like Gilmore, of course, so any activity Monday would not be a guaranteed home run.
If the Patriots do strike quickly, all we can say is it will be out of character, knowing that most offseasons, whether they were strapped for cap space or swimming in it, they’ve held tight.
4. There is more work to be done
Compared to most years, the Patriots are extremely prepared for the draft at this stage of the offseason.
In January, Patriots coaches spent a week with prospects at the Shrine Bowl. Defensive line coach Demarcus Covington worked the Senior Bowl. A handful of assistants traveled to the combine with the front office.
Since their season ended, the coaches have split their time in the office between studying film of upcoming free agents and draft prospects. How the Patriots add in free agency will tell us how they see themselves next season.
Little activity should indicate they believe they’re close to contending, and that last year was an aberration facilitated by an offensive coaching mess that’s since been cleaned up. A moderate level of activity will show the Patriots see themselves as a playoff team primed to make a run with additional talent in key areas. And a spending spree will reveal urgency, either from ownership or Belichick, to revitalize a blah roster and return to re-establish the franchise as a perennial postseason team.