What to expect for NBA trade deadline and buyout market
Perhaps because they’ve been missing so much of their team lately, Lakers fans are asking themselves the question that haunts even defending champions:
Upgrading season is fully underway, and nothing signaled its arrival like Detroit agreeing to buy out Blake Griffin from his supermax deal that was dragging behind him like a ball-andchain this season. ESPN was first to report Griffin was being bought out, and The Athletic reported that Griffin is expected to cast his fortunes with the Brooklyn Nets. Even though Griffin is diminished at nearly 32, averaging 12.3 points, 5.2 rebounds and 3.9 assists on under 37 percent shooting, seeing a lineup with James Harden, Kyrie Irving, Kevin Durant, DeAndre Jordan and potentially Griffin will be ... a sight.
That news comes at a time when the Lakers have looked particularly vulnerable, largely because of injuries. They finished 3-7 in their 10 games before the AllStar break, playing almost all of that stretch without Anthony Davis and parts without Dennis Schröder and Marc Gasol.
They’re still the No. 1-ranked defense by a reasonably wide margin (106.1 defensive rating, to 108.1 for No. 2 Utah), but the offense has been sliding (No. 17, 111.3). Notably, the Lakers are just No. 25 in 3-point percentage, dropping all the way down to 35.1 percent from a starting point above 41 percent in the first 15 games.
With some of the parameters set for where the Lakers are halfway through the season, here are some common questions answered:
HOW MUCH DO THE LAKERS HAVE TO SPEND? » Because of the structure of the offseason contracts for Montrezl Harrell and Wesley Matthews, the Lakers are hard-capped, meaning they can’t spend above $138.9 million in salary. They are currently $3.1 million under that number, which is not a lot in NBA money, and even less when you consider that the Lakers can only add veteran minimum contracts because they are above the salary cap threshold ($109.1 million).
Those are a lot of technical terms, but the practical meaning is the Lakers can’t add anyone that they can’t pay a pro-rata veteran’s minimum deal, which at the current moment is less than $1 million. That may hurt them in the hunt for a buyout market candidate: Free agents will have to be motivated to sign with them to win rings.
The hard cap also means that the Lakers will have a very difficult time taking on salary. Even though they have two roster spots available, they have to stay below the $138.9 million mark no matter what, which means there’s almost no fungible way to trade for players with bigger contracts than the salary they’re sending out (usually there’s some leeway). Many of the Lakers’ best trade pieces are underpaid, like Alex Caruso ($2.7 million) or Talen Horton-Tucker ($1.5 million) who are still on smaller deals.
CAN THE LAKERS TRADE ANY DRAFT PICKS? » What draft picks?
Just kidding. Yes, there’s some draft capital to trade, but not a lot. The Lakers have sent much of their future first-round picks and swaps to New Orleans in the deal for Anthony Davis. The earliest they can trade a first-rounder is 2027, which doesn’t seem appealing as a chip yet. They have secondrounders, but also not for a while: Their first available second-rounder to trade is in 2023. The going rate for a helpful playoff piece usually involves some salary and a first-round pick in the near future.
WHO ON THE ROSTER COULD BE TRADED? » There are a lot of hurdles for most. ESPN had a good breakdown of the sticking points last month and here are a few of them: Kyle Kuzma has a poison pill stipulation in his contract extension; Jared Dudley and Markieff Morris have the power to veto trades; by virtue of a player option for next summer, Montrezl Harrell is difficult to trade because of his ability to walk; you can technically trade LeBron James and Anthony Davis by mid-March ... but ya ain’t gonna.
There are some other guys in the mix, but the biggest chip is not exactly a glamour piece at the moment: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is earning $12 million, which seemed like a bargain over the summer, but he’s prone to hesitation and droughts like he’s in now (even though his percentages are still good). It’s hard to imagine the Lakers getting a piece they deem more valuable using KCP, and it is probably sensible to ride out the rocky stretch and trust that he’ll return to his playoff form.
Wesley Matthews hasn’t had a good season, but he also only makes $3.6 million, and again, it will be tough to get a better piece (ESPN points out that coveted forward P.J. Tucker makes $7.9 million, which the Lakers have to send out $7 million to make work). That’s the problem with most of the Lakers’ tradeable pieces: They don’t make enough money to get something valuable back. WHO ARE SOME BUYOUT CANDIDATES THE LAKERS MIGHT
CONSIDER? » While ESPN reported the Lakers’ interest in Griffin, his reported attraction to Brooklyn might close the door on that. It’s not like the Lakers needed another power forward anyway, but it’s not ideal for him to end up with the team that might have the best chance of knocking them off in the Finals.
In the Lakers’ ultimate dream world, Andre Drummond has a lot of appeal. The center currently isn’t playing for Cleveland. The question is whether they’ll buy him out or wait for a trade. Historically, the Cavaliers have been pretty patient waiting out tempestuous situations with players (see: J.R. Smith). Drummond is just 27 years old and a two-time All-Star. He makes a lot of money ($28.7 million), but maybe in a seller’s market, someone will be desperate enough to swing for a trade.
The other common player linked with the Lakers is Hassan Whiteside. Call it a hunch, but it seems surprising the Lakers would consider a player they completely demolished last year in the playoffs as a helpful member of a championship roster. Whiteside is currently not playing for the Kings. Maybe the 31-year-old comes alive on a title-contending roster, and that’s the bet the Lakers are willing to make. Perhaps the Lakers decide down the road to take another swing at Damian Jones, who just impressed with a 10-day stint, but admittedly isn’t really the shot-in-the-arm that screams “championship team.”
The two types of players the Lakers would be looking for are likely 3-point specialists or lob-catching shot-blockers. If any of those kinds of guys hit the buyout market, expect the Lakers to take a sniff. An important note: The Lakers can’t sign JaVale McGee (who is sometimes mentioned as a buyout candidate) unless he’s signed by/traded to another team this year and bought out. WHAT OTHER LOOMING DECISIONS COULD AFFECT THE LAKERS’ ROSTER? » The biggest one is Dennis Schröder’s future: He is up for an extension, and the Lakers can sign him to one whenever they agree. He’s making $15.5 million now and likely looking for a raise. Going 0-4 during his league-mandated quarantine was a strong indicator of how much impact the point guard has.Signing Schröder has expensive consequences, keeping the Lakers well into the luxury tax for the foreseeable future. Not signing Schröder could be expensive, too, in the sense that it would be hard to find a replacement point guard next year in free agency stooped against the salary cap.