IE housing sales down astounding 45%

Homebuying in Riverside and San Bernardino counties dropped 45% in the year ending in January, the third-biggest decline on record.

Inland Empire home purchases totaled 3,526 in the two counties — down 2,851 from January 2022, according to data from CoreLogic. So, just how slow is that?

• It was the No. 8 slowest-selling January in records dating to 1988.

• It was the No. 14-smallest sales total for any month.

• The percentage sales drop ranked No. 3 largest over 35 years.

• Sales were 28% below the average pace since 1988.

Economic skittishness, especially soaring inflation, and pricier home loans have frozen the housing market. Surging mortgage rates cut buying power by 28% in a year, making Southern California’s high home prices even more unaffordable.

Across Southern California in the past year, sales fell 43% to 9,938 as the median sales price fell 0.1% to $670,000.

Now, let’s look at where the Inland Empire cool down was most intense, starting with January sales:

Riverside County had 2,069 closings, down 20% in a month and 43% lower in a year. San Bernardino County had 1,457 sold — down 19% in a month and 47% lower in a year.

Next, consider how prices moved:

In Riverside County, the $539,250 median was down

1.8% in a month and 1% higher in a year. It’s also 10% off the $598,500 record high set in April 2022.

San Bernardino County had a $450,000 median — down 8.2% in a month and 1% lower in a year. It’s also 14% off the $523,000 peak of May 2022.

Payment pain

Pricier financing is clearly a culprit: The 30-year mortgage averaged 6.27% in January versus 3.45% 12 months earlier.

My trusty spreadsheet tells me Riverside County buyers got an estimated house payment that’s 39% pricier — $2,662 per month on the $539,250 median vs. $1,910 on a year ago’s $535,000 home. And that assumes having $107,850 for a 20% down payment.

In San Bernardino County, buyers got a 37% bigger payment — $2,221 monthly on the $450,000 median versus $1,624 on a year ago’s $455,000 home. The down payment was $90,000 or 20%.

Single-family homes

• Sales: Riverside County’s 1,408 transactions were down 6% in a month and 48% lower in a year. San Bernardino County’s 1,114 closings were down 12% in a month and 47% lower in a year.

• Prices: Riverside County’s $525,000 median was down 1% in a month and 4% lower in a year. San Bernardino County’s $435,000 median was down 5% in a month and 3% lower in a year.

Condominiums

• Sales: Riverside County had 235 sold — down 15% in a month and 41% lower in a year. San Bernardino County had 86 sold — down 12% in a month and 38% lower in a year.

• Prices: Riverside County’s $479,000 median was up 6% in a month and 4% higher in a year. San Bernardino County’s $482,500 median was up 4% in a month and 10% higher in a year.

New homes

• Sales: Riverside County builder sold 353 units — down 51% in a month and 16% lower in a year. San Bernardino County had 170 new residences sold — down 48% in a month and 43% lower in a year.

• Prices: Riverside County’s $615,000 new-home median was up 3% in a month and 8% higher in a year. San Bernardino County’s $584,750 median was down 3% in a month and 3% higher in a year.

• Builder share: In Riverside County, new homes were 17.1% of all closings last month compared to 11.5% 12 months earlier. San Bernardino County’s 11.7% share last month compares to 10.9% 12 months earlier.

Note: January’s total sales include 160 closings where the type of home sold could not be determined by CoreLogic versus 200 the previous month and 290 a year earlier.