Real estate hiring slows to a crawl
Job growth in Southern California’s real estate industries seems to be grinding to a near halt.
My trusty spreadsheet found property-linked employment in Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside and San Bernardino counties was 753,800 in February 2024 — up only 1,300 for the month. Ponder that in the pre-pandemic years between 2015 and 2019, on average 7,500 real estate jobs were added in February.
Things look slow, even peeking at the past year.
Local real estate bosses grew staffing by just 1,100 positions since February 2023 compared with the 12-month hiring pace averaging 13,900 since the Great Recession. Note that many people who work in the real estate world are self-employed and are not tracked by traditional government job counts.
And note that property work is now 28,900 jobs below the industry’s highest employment since the Great Recession, a record set in July 2022. Real estate has been hobbled by persistently higher mortgage rates that boosted financing costs, trimmed construction plans, and slowed all sorts of transactions.
Southern California employment in all other industries was a tad more robust in February. The 7.17 million workers were up 39,300 jobs in a month. Over 12 months, non-real estate jobs are up 54,300 over 12 months, or a 0.8% gain.
Don’t overlook real estate’s job market clout, as its share of local employment was 9.5% in February 2024.
Yet the property industry’s hiring equaled only 3% of all new local jobs for the month and 2% of Southern California hires for the year. Historically speaking, real-estate linked jobs have equaled 11% of local hiring since 2010.
How key real estate niches fared in February …
TRADE CONSTRUCTION SPECIALISTS >> 248,400 employed by contractors — off 100 for the month and up 4,400 over 12 months, or a 1.8% gain. Average February had 3,480 increase. Jobs are 9,900 below post-2010 high (October 2023).
BUILDING, CIVIL, CONSTRUCTION >> 120,400 workers in various trades — up 1,000 for the month and up 300 over 12 months, or a 0.2% gain. Average February had 1,720 increase. Jobs are 3,100 below post-2010 high (October 2023).
LENDING >> 88,300 folks in various slices of credit work — off 100 for the month and off 4,300 over 12 months, or a 4.6% drop. Average February had 160 increase. Jobs are 36,600 below post-2010 high (December 2012).
REAL ESTATE SERVICES >> 139,100 people handling transactions — off 100 for the month and up 700 over 12 months, or a 0.5% gain. Average February had 680 increase. Jobs are 4,300 below post-2010 high (December 2022).
BUILDING SUPPLIES >> 50,800 sellers of equipment and materials — off 200 for the month and off 500 over 12 months, or a -1.0% drop. Average February had 720 increase. Jobs are 5,200 below post-2010 high (June 2021).
BUILDING SERVICES >> 106,800 jobs in commercial property operations — up 800 for the month and up 500 over 12 months, or a 0.5% gain. Average February had 760 increase. Jobs are 1,900 below post-2010 high (October 2023).
Geographically speaking
Real estate breakdown, by metro area …
LOS ANGELES COUNTY >> 361,000 real estate jobs — up 1,500 for the month and off 2,700 over 12 months, or a 0.7% one-year drop. An average February in 2015-19 had 3,600 hires. Jobs were 15,700 below post-2010 high (February 2020). Real estate was 7.9% of all LA workers last month.
ORANGE COUNTY >> 212,600 real estate jobs — off 500 for the month and off 100 over 12 months, or a 0.05% one-year drop. An average February had 1,600 hires. Jobs were 17,800 below post-2010 high (August 2018). Real estate was 12.6% of all O.C. workers last month.
INLAND EMPIRE >> 180,200 real estate jobs — up 300 for the month and up 3,900 over 12 months, or a 2.2% one-year gain. An average February had 2,300 hires. Jobs were 5,900 below post-2010 high (October 2023). Real estate was 10.7% of all IE workers last month.