Do Dems have enough to beat Trump?

The primary field was crowded, cantankerous, and concerned.

Sensing defeat if the runaway train wasn’t stopped, most of the candidates ganged up on the frontrunner. Yet a funny thing happened: The more they did, the more momentum the leader of the pack generated. It quickly became no-win: Stay positive and above the fray — and the frontrunner maintained his position. But attack with issues that, in “normal times,” should have sunk him, and he grew stronger. In a last-ditch effort, the establishment issued a desperate plea to stop the “fringe” candidate at all costs, since he could not win a general election.

Except that he did. In perhaps the most surprising outcome in American political history, Donald Trump won.

You cannot talk about the Democrats’ chances unless you first discuss Trump. Emerging victoriously after beating impeachment, the president’s approval ratings were high, the economy was booming, unemployment stood near record lows, and the most likely Democratic opponent was a socialist. Nothing was certain, but Mr. Trump’s prospects were indeed favorable.

But then coronavirus hit, and everything changed. Incomprehensibly, the president did not foresee the political or economic fallout that would result from his ignoring, and later downplaying, the virus. Now, he’s squarely behind the 8-ball and desperately playing catchup in a no-win situation for any president.

First, Mr. Trump was silent. Then he responded lackadaisically. After immense pressure from his own party, he begrudgingly — and angrily — began to act. But after stating that corona was a very real threat, he inexplicably called the deadly virus a “hoax” by the Democrats. Now, that one word — dumber than all of the other outlandish things he has said, combined — could well bring him down. And no amount of backpedaling will make it better, since the Democrats will surely blast that clip millions of times.

The only trump card the president has is the economy. Period. He has many other accomplishments, from deregulation to Korea to renegotiating trade policies. Most people, however, don’t vote on such issues. But if large numbers of Americans succumb to corona, and if the economy tanks over the next eight months — a pandemic could accomplish both — he will lose his “raison d’etre” and could very well lose.

Only a small sliver of people in a handful of states need to be swayed for the president to be defeated. If it becomes a “referendum” election — if those people feel the president didn’t protect their jobs and their family’s health — they will vote against him. Just as millions voted against Hillary (and not for Trump), the great American middle would likely vote against Trump, rather than for his opponent.

Truth is, all of the Democratic candidates are virtually the same, with policy differences so small that it’s splitting hairs

Does it really matter if one wants free college for everyone, whereas another wants to only exclude the “rich,” so that it’s “free” for 90 percent of students? Ditto for canceling student debt. And is there really any difference when one advocates “free” Medicare/health care for all (Sen. Bernie Sanders), and another trumpets the largest mandated-purchase universal health care program in American history (former Vicepresident Joe Biden with Obamacare)?

Are we really supposed to believe that some candidates are “moderate,” and others “liberal,” when all want to: ban entire classes of guns; advocate sky-high tax rates for those earning more; oppose a border wall as part of an openborders policy; sign climate change treaties; fight for abortion-on-demand; and pledge to substantially increase federal spending.

Since candidate positions are so similar, it will come down to personality, trustworthiness, the “wow” factor that energizes a base, and organization.

Bernie Sanders’ base is as rabid and loyal as that of Donald Trump. He raises massive money, and has, by far, the best organization and on-theground operation. The Democratic establishment claims it opposes Bernie because he is a tough-to-elect “socialist,” but its real concern is about power: Bernie Sanders, as his own man, cannot be controlled.

If he ultimately receives a large delegate plurality, yet is denied the nomination at the convention, Donald Trump wins hands down, as principled Bernie loyalists will sit 2020 out. Put that in the bank.

Until then, it’s time to have a Corona and watch the show.