American pandemic: What to expect

“I wish I didn’t know about any of this. I wish I was like everybody else in the world, and tomorrow it would just be over. There wouldn’t be any time to be sorry… Oh, Jesus! I really wanted to learn how to swim. I swear to God I did.” — Matthew Broderick’s character in the classic movie “War Games,” as he contemplated possible nuclear war.

The COVID-19 (C19) pandemic, as it now stands, is not “the big one” — that’s reserved for a global population killer such as bird flu, which remains several mutations away from achieving that distinction. Unlike Hollywood’s depiction of apocalypses, zombies, and blood in the streets, the C19 pandemic, while still dangerous, will result in more “pedestrian,” though still monumental, effects.

The interconnected global economy and speed of intercontinental travel have allowed this coronavirus to rock the world like nothing in history. Trillions of dollars have evaporated; stock markets are plunging; manufacturing, especially in China, has come to a halt; travel-related industries have been crushed; millions of jobs may be lost; and quarantines placing millions in lockdown are increasing.

The biggest impact will be economic, as productivity and consumer confidence decline, and millions, potentially billions, will neither work at normal capacity nor travel while the virus is raging. We have witnessed this with China which, quite amazingly, prioritized health over economics by shutting down a massive part of its manufacturing engine. Factories were idled, travel was banned, and the largest quarantine in world history was implemented.

Ill-advised decisions have contributed to C19’s spread, showing that human behavior is a pandemic’s best friend. Consequently, coronavirus will continue unabated until it possibly goes dormant in summer (though likely to re-emerge in fall), mutates into a benign strain, or a majority of the world’s population becomes infected.

Inexcusably bad governmental decisions have allowed it to flourish, from secrecy about corona (China), to incompetence (China, America, Italy), to counterproductive political leadership (President Donald Trump’s complacency, blame-game tactics, and flat-out incorrect medical proclamations). By contrast, China takes the gold medal for how to attain a level of containment: Staying home from work and school until the virus fades from lack of hosts. But in entitlement-driven democracies, the result is starkly different.

Even now, with C19 cases on the decline in China (though its numbers must be taken with a grain of salt), many Chinese are, of their own volition, still exercising extreme caution.

Not so here. Consider a few examples of irresponsible behavior:

• An employee of Dartmouth Medical Center showed signs of corona after returning from Italy. He was told to self-quarantine pending the test result. Instead, he attended a crowded music venue. He was, in fact, positive for corona, and now others with whom he had contact may be infected.

• The father and sister of a woman with coronavirus decided to ignore their self-quarantine order and attend a school function.

This should come as no shock, as it was on full display when doctors and nurses returning from the deadly Ebola hot zone in 2014 defiantly, and quite publicly, disregarded mandatory quarantines.

What were the repercussions, both then and now? Absolutely, positively nothing. The answer should have been local, state and federal prosecutors announcing charges against the offenders. And if, because of their actions, a person dies, they should be charged with manslaughter.

To be clear, many Americans are responsibly heeding advice from the news — ironically, the same “fake news” outlets that Vice President Mike Pence has been imploring to spread his message. Many possessed the common sense to have several weeks of food on hand (which everyone should have, regardless of C19), and many bought cleaners, masks and antibacterial products before they sold out.

Yet it is astounding how many are going the other way, parroting the president’s woefully incorrect statements that this is just the flu, and nothing more than hype by his political foes.

Nothing could be further than the truth. The storm is no longer coming — it’s here. If we don’t jettison partisan bickering — and that includes the president and congressional Democrats — and replace it with caution and common sense, the tipping point will soon be upon us.