Even with about-face on student visas, enrollment still will plummet

The Trump administration unexpectedly backed off a draconian new rule that would have affected international students, but other policy damage may not be easily undone.

In a federal hearing Tuesday, the government abruptly dropped its recent directive that international students whose classes go onlineonly because of the pandemic would be refused visas or subject to deportation. That’s a good development.

Even so, thanks to other antiimmigrant policies, international student enrollment is still expected to plummet this fall to its lowest level in decades.

This will seed problems in the U.S. economy for years to come.

Enrollment of new international students at U.S. universities in the fall semester of the 2020-2021 academic year is projected to decline 63% to 98% from 2018-2019 levels, according to a National Foundation for American Policy analysis. That wide range of estimates reflects uncertainty about how other immigration measures will be implemented over the coming weeks.

The most pessimistic figure in that range would place enrollment of new foreign students at its lowest level since the end of World War II.

Two major U.S. policy decisions are expected to hold back enrollment.

First, U.S. embassies and consulates around the world suspended routine services amid pandemic closures; that includes processing of student visas. The State Department says visa services are being phased back in, but it hasn’t given dates for when it will reopen which consulates. And even if consulates in countries that send the largest numbers of students, such as India, reopen soon, there’s likely to be a big backlog of applications to be processed.

Already, there may not be sufficient time to process and approve

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Phone: visas for the fall semester.

Additionally, many countries are still subject to U.S. travel bans related to the pandemic. Even if consulates reopen, it’s unclear whether students from these places can get U.S. visas.

Well before COVID-19, new international student enrollment had been declining. Colleges told the Institute of International Education reasons their foreign student enrollment had been falling included visa application problems, the social and political environment in the United States, and U.S. tuition costs.

Trump might be unbothered by any reservations foreign students have about visiting a coronavirus-infested, anti-immigrant country doing its darnedest to keep them out. After all, he’s merely keeping his promise to build the (figurative) wall against all forms of immigration — legal, illegal, skilled, unskilled, professional, working-class, researcher, student, whatever.

Trump and senior policy adviser Stephen Miller might pause to consider who and what else their plans to punish immigrants also hurt, perhaps irreparably: American students, American schools, American businesses, American workers and America’s balance of trade.

International students enrich campuses figuratively (by bringing perspectives and customs from around the world) and literally (by paying more money). International students are more likely to pay full, undiscounted tuition. Schools — especially those in states where taxpayer funding for public education has fallen — use this tuition to remain solvent and to subsidize their American students.

International students are also more likely to study STEM fields, providing a crucial pipeline of talent to the U.S. tech industry and to America’s research and development infrastructure, among other sectors.

Among the data points I’ve noted before: Over the course of the past century, immigrant scientists helped revolutionize U.S. science and innovation, as documented in a study of patent records by economists Petra Moser, Alessandra Voena and Fabian Waldinger.

And, finally, there’s trade. Education-related travel is one of America’s most successful exports, valued at $44 billion last year, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. U.S. educational exports were roughly equal to exports in soybeans, coal and natural gas, combined.

And yet Trump, who has pledged to eliminate the trade deficit, is nuking this wildly successful educational export industry. Maybe because he prioritizes harming immigrants; maybe because he prioritizes harming colleges, a favorite target of many on the right; maybe because he doesn’t understand how much economic damage his actions cause.

Whatever the motivation, America will be paying the cost long after Trump has left office.

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