The Times Herald (Norristown, PA)
Stocks fall as yields continue upward march
Restrictions on businesses and the reluctance of many Americans to shop, travel, dine out or attend mass events have weighed persistently on the job market. Job growth averaged a meager 29,000 a month from November through January, and the nation still has nearly 10 million fewer jobs than it did in February 2020. Though the unemployment rate was 6.3% in January, a broader measure that includes people who have given up on their job searches is closer to 10%.
“The source of all labor market damage continues to be COVID-19,” said AnnElizabeth Konkel, economist at the Indeed Hiring Lab. “Increased vaccine distribution is promising, since the public health situation must improve for there to be a full economic recovery. When we completely return to ‘normal’ is still unknown.”
The data firm Womply reports that 64% of movie theaters and other entertainment venues, 40% of bars and 34% of hair salons and beauty shops are closed. And on Wednesday, the Federal Reserve reported that across the country, “overall conditions in the leisure and hospitality sector continued to be restrained by ongoing COVID-19 restrictions.”
On Friday, though, economists have forecast that the government will report a strong job gain for February of near 200,000, which would raise hopes that layoffs will slow. Optimism is rising that increasing vaccinations and a new federal rescue aid package that will likely be enacted soon will spur growth and hiring in the coming months. Many analysts foresee the economy expanding at an annual rate of at least 5 percent in the current quarter and 7 percent for all of 2021.
Already, crucial sectors of the economy are showing signs of picking up as vaccinations increase, federal aid spreads through the economy and the Fed’s low-rate policies fuel borrowing and spending. Last month, America’s consumers bounced back from months of retrenchment to step up their spending by 2.4% — the sharpest increase in seven months and a sign that the economy may be poised to sustain a recovery.
The solid gain suggested that many people were growing more confident about spending, especially after receiving $600 checks that went to most adults early this year in a federal economic aid package. Additional relief is likely for American households and businesses as Congress considers President Joe Biden’s proposal for a new aid package amounting to $1.9 trillion.
At the same time, rising bond yields in the financial markets are pointing to worries that higher inflation could be on the way as the economy recovers. This week, Lael Brainard, a member of the Fed’s Board of Governors, sought to calm investors by stressing that the Fed, while generally optimistic in its outlook, is still a long way off from raising interest rates or otherwise lessening its support for the economy.
Stocks turned lower on Wall Street on Thursday as bond yields made another upward spike, renewing pressure on high-flying technology companies.
The S&P 500 fell 1.3%, its third straight loss. The Nasdaq pulled back 2.1%.
The losses came as the yield on the 10-year Treasury rose sharply during a question-and-answer session with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell during which Powell said that any pickup in inflation in coming months would likely be temporary, disappointing investors who were hoping for a firmer stance against inflation.
“You have a context where rates have moved quite rapidly the last few days, so the market is generally on edge and looking for more reassurance in the short term,” said Lisa Erickson, head of traditional investments at U.S. Bank Wealth Management.
As the economy reopens this spring and summer, and vaccines are distributed and the coronavirus retreats, many economists expect a spending boom that will stretch available supplies of goods and services. That will likely push up prices, Powell said.
Powell gave no hint that the Fed would take steps to keep longer-term interest rates in check, such as by shifting some of its $80 billion in monthly Treasury purchases to longer-term securities.