If Ukraine falls, it will be the Republicans’ Afghanistan

House Republicans hammered President Joe

Biden last week for his catastrophic withdrawal from Afghanistan, and rightly so — it was one of the worst foreign policy calamities in U.S. history. But if Republicans cut off military aid to Ukraine, they will precipitate an equally disastrous debacle — and they will own it in the same way that Biden owns the exit from Afghanistan.

The heart-wrenching images of Taliban forces marching into Kabul as desperate Afghans fled have formed an indelible stain on Biden’s reputation. Before Kabul fell in August 2021, his approval rating had never dipped below 50%. Afterward, the floor fell out from under him — and he never recovered. The botched withdrawal was the tipping point after which many Americans decided Biden was incompetent.

Republicans should imagine what the fall of Kyiv would do to their reputation.

Already, their delays in new aid have tilted the battlefield in Russia’s favor. If the Republican-controlled House doesn’t pass military aid soon, Ukrainians will start to run out of key weapons systems — and Russia will start making major advances.

Today, U.S. air defense systems keep Russian bombers out of the sky and allow Ukrainian forces to shoot down Russia’s drones and missiles. But if Ukraine runs out of missile defense interceptors, Russian planes will be able to bomb Ukrainian front-line positions with impunity. They will also be able to attack Ukraine’s critical infrastructure, plunging Ukrainian cities into darkness and crippling the nation’s economy. Then, they will almost certainly start carpet-bombing Ukrainian cities.

It would be a humanitarian catastrophe. Russia would inflict civilian casualties on a scale unseen in Europe since World War II, intentionally targeting schools, hospitals and residential buildings to break Ukraine’s will. (Just look at Russia’s brutal targeting and massacre of civilians during its barbaric 2016 air campaign in Aleppo, Syria.) A massive wave of refugees would begin fleeing the country.

While Ukraine would not likely fall this year, the conditions would be set for a Russian victory in 2025 — just as (Republicans hope) Donald Trump takes office.

So, Ukraine’s collapse could well happen on the GOP’s watch, not Biden’s. Imagine the outrage as stunned Americans watch Russian forces marching into Kyiv, slaughtering and pillaging as they did in Bucha at the start of the war. Whom would Americans hold responsible?

Indeed, the political repercussions in many ways would be worse. At least in Afghanistan, Biden could argue that the time had come to pull U.S. troops out of harm’s way. But in Ukraine, there are no U.S. troops in harm’s way. Republicans would have abandoned Ukraine not to save American lives but to save money. That might not be as popular a decision as they think when Americans are seeing the lifeless bodies of Ukrainian women and children on their televisions.

What about the possibility of letting Europe make up for these weapons shortfalls? Europeans don’t have the stockpiles to do so. “Only the U.S. has the available stocks of ammunition, armored vehicles and their ammunition, and air defense interceptors to affect the trajectory of the conflict dramatically over the coming weeks and months,” says Fred Kagan, the director of the Critical Threats Project at the American Enterprise Institute, where I’m a senior fellow.

Here’s the bottom line: Without U.S. aid, Putin’s forces will begin marching toward Kyiv and Ukraine will become the next Afghanistan. So for Republicans, a time for choosing has arrived: Unless you want to be blamed for the fall of Kyiv the way Biden is blamed for the fall of Kabul, send military aid to Ukraine.