All of a sudden, the Murphy vs. Guadagno race is getting interesting
The race for New Jersey governor is finally heating up, with the debate Wednesday night being the firestarter. Things got testy between Phil Murphy and Kim Guadagno, and as a result, people are starting to pay attention.
And you know what? This election is going to be closer than I originally thought. Murphy has held a big lead in the polls since forever. Literally. He’s led since proto-humans crawled out of the muck and started shedding their gills in favor of lungs. He’s been the de facto next governor since go. I’ve always referred to him as “Our Next Governor Phil Murphy.”
But the polls are getting slightly tighter — the latest, the FDU PublicMind poll, has Murphy leading Guadagno 47-32 among voters who have made up their mind — and I’m starting to feel a change in the narrative.
Do I think Murphy is in trouble? Not quite. But do I think this race is going to be a lot tighter than originally assumed? Absolutely. And here’s seven reasons why …
1) Grapefruits and broccoli: It was a ridiculous question at the debate: What’s your favorite fruit and vegetable? Murphy paused for a minute before answering, “grapefruit and broccoli.” Guadagno went in for the kill, answering “Jersey tomatoes and cranberries,” two ultraNew Jersey answers. Now: Does it matter? Of course not. But it does highlight the fact Murphy is an outsider. He didn’t grow up in New Jersey, lives in a multimillion dollar compound, probably never had a pork roll, egg and cheese on a hard roll. He is not, to put it simply, one of us. Never has been, never will be. He’s not a member of the Jersey tribe. This comes through. It’s going to cost him votes.
2) Taxes: Anti-Murphy voters believe he’s going to raise taxes, and raise them everywhere. This is a fiction, at least at this point, as he’s only said he will raise taxes on millionaires. But he’s got big plans in this state, things like making the pension fund solvent and paying for higher education and a few dozen other big-dollar expenditures, and as a result “Yeah, well, so, where the hell is going to get the money?” is a fair question to ask.
3) Sanctuary State: In the first debate, Murphy said he wanted to make New Jersey a sanctuary state. Even I have trouble getting behind that, and I’m pretty progressive on the whole “what to do about illegal immigrants” thing. Bottom line is when people who aren’t hyper-liberal hear “sanctuary state,” they’re thinking “undocumented criminals roaming the streets and holy moly lock the doors and hide the women.” This is obviously ridiculous, but not for nuthin’, it is what it is. (Someone please explain to Murphy what “not for nuthin’, it is what it is” means. Thank you.)
4) Guadagno is not Christie: She has done a very good job distancing herself lately from the governor and his below the Mendoza Line approval ratings. I haven’t heard much Christie chatter as it pertains to Guadagno in recent weeks. She’s standing on her own, and this will help her. Which leads to ...
5) Christie’s disappearing act: Haven’t had much Chris Christie in the news the last few weeks. It’s about as quiet as he’s been in his eight years as governor. In fact, the biggest news out of Christie’s world lately has been his public semi-condemnation of President Donald Trump for not following through and declaring the opioid crisis a national emergency. And speaking of Trump ...
6) Guadagno is not Trump: The independent voters of New Jersey are the voters who always swing the election. And Guadagno — despite going Trumpesqe with that shameful illegal immigration ad — has done a decent enough job distancing himself from Trump so that independent voters who loathe Trump can still vote for Guadagno and not feel filthy for doing so.
And lastly …
7) My polling. I posted “Phil or Kim” on Facebook. I asked “Phil or Kim” on NJ101.5. And you know who won those votes? Guadagno. Now I’m not saying my Facebook page and my fillin hosting duties are the be-all, end-all barometers as to who’s going to win the election, but last autumn, they were both blowing up with Trump support, which I ignored, figuring it was just noise. It wasn’t noise. I’m not ignoring it this time.
If I had to bet, I’d still bet Murphy. But I’m dropping the “Our Next Governor” bit for the time being.