Trump, Moore and their odd orbit of claims
WASHINGTON » The orbit of odd political claims stretched from Utah canyons to the looming Alabama Senate race to crazy-asusual Washington in recent days.
That’s what The Associated Press found when scrutinizing an assortment of statements from President Donald Trump and others last week.
In addition, earlier comments by Republican Senate candidate Roy Moore about his decades-old behavior with teens drew scrutiny that dominated the last leg of the campaign for Alabama’s election. Trump pitched Moore’s candidacy at a rally in Pensacola, Florida, close to the Alabama line.
A look at some of their statements:
TRUMP, surveying the crowd at his Pensacola rally Friday night: “Look at these guys, ‘blacks for Trump.’ I love you. I love you. By the way, now that you bring it up, black homeownership just hit the highest level it has ever been in the history of our country. Congratulations.”
THE FACTS: Not true or even close.
The U.S. Census finds that the black homeownership rate peaked during 2004, when 49.7 percent of black households owned homes. (The rate for all races that year reached 69.2 percent, also a modern record.) The black homeownership rate stayed in similar territory until the recession, when it dropped to the mid-40s.
This year: 42.7 percent in the first quarter, 42.3 percent in the second and 42 percent in the third. That’s an uptick from last year but far from a record. Quarterly rates this year for the total U.S. population: 63.6 percent, 63.7 percent and 63.9 percent.
TRUMP: “You know, we have factories pouring back into our country. Did you ever think you would hear that? I used to tell you, that’s going to happen.” — Pensacola rally.
THE FACTS: Factories are not pouring into the country, according to available data. Spending on the construction of factories has dropped 14 percent over the past 12 months. There has been a steady decline in spending on factory construction since the middle of 2015 — a trend Trump has yet to reverse despite his claims otherwise.
The existing manufacturing sector, though, has been doing a steady dose of hiring. This appears to reflect the synchronized global growth that has aided a rebound in manufacturing after setbacks in 2016 from a stronger dollar and low energy prices. In November, manufacturing added 31,000 jobs for a gain of 189,000 from a year earlier.
TRUMP: “So we’re at 3.3 percent GDP. I see no reason why we don’t go to 4 percent, 5 percent and even 6 percent.” Speaks of GDP “getting
up to 4, 5, and even 6 percent, because I think that’s possible.” — Cabinet meeting Wednesday.
THE FACTS: Anything’s possible, but to get serious: There are no signs the economy is capable of delivering a phenomenal and rarely achieved growth rate in the order of 6 percent, or even 5. Or even 4.
Federal Reserve officials and most mainstream economists expect economic growth to hew closer to 2 percent. The economy last cleared the 6 percent hurdle in 1984 and only for that fleeting year, at 7.3 percent. This was a different time, when baby boomers were at prime working ages, instead of today when they’re starting to retire. The Federal Reserve had boosted growth by steadily slashing a key interest rate from its 1981 peak of 20 percent, while the Fed today is slowly increasing the same rate. Also, the national debt was much lower.