MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL
You want a free agent frenzy? Wait until next offseason
As baseball made its exit last November the picture could hardly have been more positive. The game was basking in the afterglow of a brilliant World Series played between two outstanding teams. There was unprecedented harmony between the players and owners and prosperity appeared to ooze everywhere. Nearly every franchise had enjoyed recent success on the field and/or had reason to believe that success was on the horizon.
It certainly has been a long, cold winter, hasn’t it?
As opening day 2018 arrives today, the 2017 picture looks as familiar as hieroglyphics carved on the wall of a cave thousands of years ago.
The monumental gap between the rich clubs in the big cities and the struggling ones in the smaller markets has returned almost overnight. Some clubs are thumping their chests and brandishing their checkbooks while others appear to have little or no chance this year or any time in the immediate future. Worse still, the players and owners are snarling at each other and threatening to reopen the devastating labor wars of the past.
What’s the problem? Mostly it’s the fact that many of this year’s free agent crop had to settle for contracts that were nowhere near as lucrative as they expected and nowhere near as lucrative as the ones bestowed on similar players in the past. At least one — relief pitcher Greg Holland who saved 41 games for the Rockies last season — remains unsigned.
Some in the media would have us believe that 30 general managers slapped their palms to their foreheads as it suddenly dawned on them that it isn’t smart business to give long-term contracts to players approaching or entering their declining years. Some of the players would have us believe that baseball’s whole economic system is broken. A few accused the owners of collusion and one or two even suggested that the players should walk out on strike.
That’s nonsense. All of it, coming from both sides and the media as well, is sheer nonsense.
There’s no doubt that this year’s class of free agents got the short end of the stick economically and there’s no single reason why that happened. A number of factors, working together, forced the players to take smaller and shorter contracts. Collusion is not one of those reasons. Neither is a sudden enlightenment among the general managers or owners.
The most prominent reason is that this year’s crop of free agents was less talented than most and next year’s is likely to be the exact opposite. Potentially Bryce Harper, Clayton Kershaw, Manny Machardo, Josh Donaldson, Charlie Blackmon, Elvis Andrus, Brian Dozier, Drew Pomeranz, Craig Kimbrel, Andrew Miller and many others could be on the free market next winter. A number of teams, especially the Yankees, have their eyes and their payrolls riveted on this group.
The Yankees expect next year’s payroll to exceed the luxury tax threshold and expect to pay the appropriate fee as a result. That fee will be 20 percent unless they also exceed the threshold this year, in which case it will be 50 percent. Consequently, they’re determined to hold this year’s payroll under the line ($197 million) which means they’ve had to be careful about spending on free agents this season. The Dodgers are doing exactly the same thing.
That was bad news for this year’s free agents because it took the two richest clubs out of play.
At the other end of the economic spectrum were the Pirates and Marlins, each of which chose to dump salary. They accomplished that by offering some very fine players on the trading market and demanded nothing more than second-tier prospects in exchange. A number of teams addressed their offseason concerns by trading with the Pirates and Marlins rather than by bidding on free agents.
As a result, the number of clubs seriously looking at free agents was a much smaller group than usual. On top of that the greatest prize on the market was believed to be Japanese star Shohei Ohtani, who wasn’t even a major leaguer last year. After the Angels landed Ohtani, all remaining free agents seemed paltry by comparison. There was relatively little competition for their services and general managers had little incentive to offer them splashy contracts.
The result was that many players had to settle for considerably less than they had expected to get. That led to harsh words from the players and praise from some corners of the media. I suspect all that will be forgotten a year from now.
If Harper, Kershaw, Machado, etc. all hit the market next year I don’t think you’ll hear ballplayers complaining about collusion. And I sure as heck don’t think you’ll hear members of the media congratulating the general managers on their fiscal sanity.
Kershaw pitched 21 1⁄3 innings in six outings and did not allow a run. He struck out 23. He did this in the thin desert air that generally favors hitters… Dan Vogelbach of the Mariners not only hit .407 but blasted seven homers in 54 at bats. He walked 13 times…Max Scherzer of the Nationals allowed six homers in 26 innings…The Braves turned 42 double plays in 32 games…Roman Quinn of the Phillies stole nine bases on 10 attempts…Kyle Tucker of the Astros drove in 21 runs in 20 games.
Hall of Fame voter Jay Dunn has written baseball for The Trentonian for 50 years. Contact him at jaydunn8@aol.com