Kapler’s success or failure as Phillies manager will be defined by analytics
Last Sunday night (April 1) I was perusing the internet casually when the headline of an article grabbed my undivided attention. It said that the Phillies reportedly had fired manager Gabe Kapler.
I opened the article and read that Kapler had reportedly been replaced by former manager Pete Mackanin as a result of multiple mistakes in the first three games. Only at the bottom of the article did the writer acknowledge that the whole thing was an April Fool’s joke.
Not very funny if you ask me. The operators of the Web site apparently didn’t find it amusing either. The article soon disappeared.
However, I suspect more than a few Phillies fans read the piece and were disappointed when they discovered that it was fake news. Rarely, if ever, has a major league manager gotten off to a rougher start. The kindest way to put it is he has given second-guessers plenty of fodder.
On opening day he elected to “rest” center fielder Odubel Herrera. Before the day was over he yanked starter Aaron Nola after only 5 1/3 innings and 68 pitches and then watched his bullpen turn a 5-0 lead into an 8-5 defeat.
Two days later he caused a major flap when he removed his starting pitcher in the third inning and summoned a reliever who had not yet thrown a pitch in the bullpen. That was the most controversial of the 18 times he changed pitchers in the first 26 innings of the season.
On Tuesday he shifted his infielders in such a way against the Mets’ Jay Bruce that made it impossible to turn a double play. That decision led directly to the only runs scored in a 2-0 defeat.
Kapler has admitted that calling in Hoby Milner before he had a chance to warm up was a mistake. But none of those other decisions seem to bother him.
They apparently bother a lot of other people.
Get used to it, folks. There’s no indication this stuff is going to stop.
The men in the Phillies front office who make the baseball decisions are dedicated to analytics. Every team relies on analytics to some degree, but the Phillies, evidently, are all in. Everything you can think of and probably a lot of things you can’t think of are fed through computers and the results dictate personnel moves and game strategy. Kapler, who has very little managerial experience at any level, may have been hired primarily because he, too, believes strongly in the power of analytics.
Here’s an example of how analytics work.
On opening day the starting pitchers were Nola for the Phillies and Julio Teheran for the Atlanta Braves. During his career Nola has secured approximately three ground outs for every two fly outs. That means having an excellent ballhawk like Herrera in center field isn’t terribly important when Nola is pitching. Since Herrera had gotten only five hits in 27 career at bats against Teheran, it made sense to Kapler to leave Herrera out of the lineup, which is exactly what he did.
What leaves me scratching my head is he replaced him with Aaron Altherr, who was 2-for-16 lifetime against Teheran.
Here’s another example. Statistics show clearly that Nola, like most starting pitchers, is not as effective against a batter the third time he faces him in the same game as he is the first two times. That’s probably the reason why Nola was removed in the sixth inning. Nola had handled the Braves well the first two times around, but he had pitched to two batters a third time and both had hit the ball hard. Kapler decided it was time to give the Atlanta batters a different look. Unfortunately for him the Phillies bullpen is less than dependable and the result was disastrous. According to analytics, however, it was the right move.
Analytics.
Analytics dictated the defensive alignment deployed against Bruce. The third baseman had to protect against the bunt, which meant no one could cover second base when the ball was hit to the shortstop.
Analytics is the Big A in Philadelphia this year. And that’s no April Fool.
of the Mariners has faced 11 batters and struck out eight of them. He leads the majors in saves with three…The lead the majors in stolen bases with six. They are also tied for the lead in homers with 12…Lane of the Braves already has three pinch hits…The have a team slugging percentage of .564, but they also have a team earned run average 6.88…The are 4-0 in interleague play. The rest of the National League is 0-3…Cardinals second baseman is off to a rough start. After 11 at bats his average is still .000… The have issued only eight unintentional walks in 36 innings…The Reds, Red Sox, Indians and Twins have yet to make an error. The Blue Jays have committed seven…The are 3-0 in one-run games. The and are both 0-3…Starlin
of the Marlins and of the Yankees have each grounded into three double plays…Clay
of the Dodgers is the only pitcher to have lost two games.
Mariners Castro Kershaw Edwin Diaz Dodgers Nationals Adams White Sox Pirates Kolten Wong Red Sox Rays Aaron Judge
Hall of Fame voter Jay Dunn was written baseball for The Trentonian for 50 years. Contact him at jaydunn8@aol.com