Entitlement reform exits with Paul Ryan

In February, close associates say, House Speaker Paul Ryan was still thinking about running for re-election. But then he decided to “spend more time with his family.” Don’t we all. Ryan said he doesn’t want to be a “Sunday dad.”

At the risk of sounding cynical, that’s probably not the whole story.

Perhaps the rest can be deduced from Ryan’s remarks on a radio show last December. “We’re going to have to get back next year at entitlement reform, which is how you tackle the debt and the deficit,” he said, explaining that “health-care entitlements” such as Medicare and Medicaid “are the big drivers of debt.”

Ryan said he had been speaking privately with the president, and Trump was warming to the idea of slowing the growth of entitlement spending.

But it didn’t work out that way. The tax cuts were followed by the biggest spending bill anyone in Washington had ever seen. Now it’s an election year, and recorded comments about tackling the debt by reforming “health-care entitlements” fall into the general category of opposition research.

That is to say, Ryan’s remarks about cutting Medicare and Medicaid would likely show up in nearly every Democratic campaign commercial between now and November.

Under a Democratic president, Ryan’s fiscal tight-fistedness wasn’t fully tested politically, because the threat of a veto was always hovering.

But under a Republican president, a vow to cut Medicare and Medicaid might lead to a high and possibly career-ending turnout of voters against any lawmaker on Ryan’s side of the aisle.

President Trump has argued that economic growth will generate enough revenue to pay down the debt without cutting “health-care entitlements.” Fiscal hawks may think that’s sugar-water, even Kool-Aid, but there’s no appetite for castor oil during an election year.

Now the fight is on to see who will be the next speaker of the House. Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy, R-Bakersfield, is the early favorite, as he was in 2015 until he made careless comments to Fox News’ Sean Hannity that seemed to suggest the purpose of the Select Committee on Benghazi was to damage Hillary Clinton’s chances of being elected president.

“Everybody thought Hillary Clinton was unbeatable, right?” McCarthy said then. “But we put together a Benghazi special committee, a select committee. What are her numbers today? Her numbers are dropping.”

Shortly thereafter, McCarthy dropped out of the race for Speaker, and a reluctant Paul Ryan was persuaded to take the job.

Majority Whip Rep. Steve Scalise, R-Louisiana, and Ohio Congressman Jim Jordan have indicated an interest in becoming speaker, and South Carolina’s Rep. Trey Gowdy reminded all critics that it’s not necessary to be a member of Congress to be elected speaker of the House.

“To those outside of Congress who always seemed to have a better idea or a smarter strategy,” Gowdy said, “now is your chance to run for speaker.”

Deep divisions in the Republican caucus make the job of speaker a difficult one, and the Senate’s filibuster rule — requiring 60 votes to get almost anything passed — makes tough votes in the House that much tougher politically.

For all those reasons, entitlement reform isn’t going to happen. The more likely scenario is that Congress will continue to spend money as fast as it comes in. Probably faster.

— Los Angeles Daily News,

Digital First Media