Poll shows Menendez and Hugin in dead heat. One pollster says that’s dead wrong
The battle between Bob Menendez and Bob Hugin for the U.S. Senate is so heated, even pollsters are fighting one another.
For real. On Monday, Stockton University released a poll that had Menendez and Hugin in a dead heat, which was shocking on just about every level to all observers. Menendez was polling with a 17-point lead in the spring, New Jersey is a blue state, New Jersey doesn’t like Trump … the list goes on. Is the race getting closer? For sure. This close? Seemed unlikely.
But here’s Stockton, issuing the poll, and there’s the Republicans, loving the poll.
And then …
Patrick Murray got involved. He’s the director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute. And he wrote a statement that started with, “There are serious problems with the Stockton Poll of the New Jersey Senate race …”
That’s gloves-off behavior right there. That’s one pollster from one university laying the smackdown on the polling practices of another university. It’s the equivalent of Vince McMahon’s music hitting and him swaggering down the aisle to interrupt someone else’s promo. It’s that level of “whoa, here we go.”
“Patrick Murray is a very smart pollster and has an outstanding national reputation,” Ben Dworkin, the director of the Rowan Institute for Public Policy & Citizenship (RIPPAC), told me. “When he ventures into this area with this kind of criticism a lot of people will take it seriously.”
Murray’s four-paragraph statement basically said, “this poll is bananas.” He said the poll assumed a 92 percent voter turnout, only had 4 percent of respondents in the 18-29 age range, and had about half the number of Hispanics and African-Americans that are expected to vote.
The poll basically has 99 problems, and “methodology” pretty much is all of them.
So why did Murray decide to go after Stockton? He said so in a tweet: “I do not make this comment on the Stockton poll lightly. But I feel this practice can undermine the credibility of the good work done not only by Monmouth, but also Marist, Siena, Quinnipiac, Eagleton, FDU, etc.”
And why am I writing about it? Because if you Google “menendez hugin poll” or search it on Twitter, you’ll find news item after news item discussing the “dead heat” these two are in, which, if Murray is to be believed — and he very literally put his reputation on the line by calling Stockton out, so yeah, I believe him — shows the poll is at best, deeply flawed and at worst, completely and horribly wrong.
So all this talk you’re hearing about the “dead heat” in the New Jersey senate race might very well be — dare I say — fake news.
This is not to say that Menendez is a lock to win this race. I expect him to, but it’s not a forgone conclusion.
“The reason this is a closer race than originally expected is because Menendez had to go through the corruption trial, and then he’s got $10 million worth of negative ads attacking him on the charges,” Dworkin said. “Even though it ended in a mistrial, even though the prosecutor dropped the charges, it doesn’t matter to the public. They’re just seeing a barrage of anti-Menendez ads.That kind of advertising takes a toll.”
Menendez hasn’t done much firing back, mostly because he doesn’t have the unlimited war chest Hugin has, according to Dworkin. But now that Election Day is a month away, he expects Menendez’s camp to go on an advertising blitz.
One thing, however, is for certain: We can expect more polls on this race. Fairleigh Dickinson is releasing one Wednesday.
Lastly, a request: Instead of a press release, I’d like to see Murray issue the results of the next Monmouth poll shirtless, on horseback, holding a lance. Let’s kick this New Jersey polling war up a notch.