Giants’ plan of contending again with Eli is misguided
When asked this week what win total would indicate progress for the Giants this season, head coach Pat Shurmur instead offered a platitude.
“The progress is we need to start playing winning football in general,” Shurmur said.
It wasn’t surprising. Regardless of how much the Giants believe they can or will improve, no coach is ever going to tell the media how many wins they’re targeting. That backs them into a corner and benefits no one in the organization.
But let’s ignore that for a moment and instead talk about how these Giants are different.
Only 11 players remain from when general manager Dave Gettleman took over on Dec. 28, 2017. The 68-year-old has spent almost two years reshaping the roster in hopes that quarterback Eli Manning, who’s now in the final year of his contract, can make one last run at a third Lombardi Trophy.
In doing so, Gettleman prioritized culture and long-term financial flexibility by letting go of high-priced talents such as Odell Beckham Jr., Landon Collins, Olivier Vernon and Damon Harrison. But how much will that help in 2019 specifically?
“We feel like we are a better team than we were a year ago, we just have to go out and perform,” Shurmur said. “I like the way we have built our team. I like some of the changes we made personnel wise. I also feel like the second year in our system we are smoother in how we operate.”
That last sentence is one of the biggest reasons for optimism. The offense produced at a high level more consistently after the bye week last season, and the rebuilt offensive line should be as strong as it’s been since the Super Bowl XLVI team.
But here’s why, even with what appears to be a lighter schedule, the Giants will only improve marginally and their plan of still contending with Manning and his $23.2 million cap hit is misguided.
With seven new starters on defense, that unit is young and unproven. And it’s going to be tested right away Sunday against the Cowboys, who are loaded with talent and look like one of the favorites to win the NFC.
Dallas’ offense also figures to be somewhat unpredictable because they haven’t played any games yet under new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore. The Giants realize that the Cowboys likely held back on their scheme during the preseason, but there won’t be drastic changes.
“I’d say there’s a little bit of some differences to the new offensive coordinator, but pretty much it’s going to be most of the same tendencies just because of the players they have,” nose tackle Dalvin Tomlinson said. “They’ll stick to the things that work.”
Still, that won’t make it any easier to slow down running back Ezekiel Elliott and an elite offensive line.
The Giants are high on defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence, but as a rookie he’s not going to replicate what Harrison provided in New York as a runstuffer. Prior to trading Harrison last season, the defense allowed 113.8 yards per game in the first seven weeks. After the deal, that number rose to 122.3 for the final nine games.
Then you look at quarterback Dak Prescott’s ability to extend plays and make throws on the run. That’s where the Giants’ lack of a pass rush and suspect tight end coverage will be magnified.
Of the team’s 30 sacks last season, seven belonged to Vernon, who is now a Brown. Another 5.5 were from defensive end B.J. Hill, but threewere in one game. He still needs to develop into a more consistently disruptive force.
The Giants are counting on second-year outside linebacker Lorenzo Carter to be their most dynamic pass-rusher this year. While he flashed in a limited role as a rookie (four sacks, 10 QB hits), the former third-round pick out of Georgia hasn’t yet proven he can be a three-down player.
Other new starters include linebacker Markus Golden, who has yet to recapture his 2016 form since tearing his ACL in 2017, and second-year undrafted linebacker Tae Davis, who is a major question mark. The secondary should be better with reliable veteran Antoine Bethea at free safety, but is Janoris Jenkins ready to get his act together and perform like an All-Pro corner again after two underwhelming years?
I’m skeptical of a defense that was already sitting in the bottom fourth of Football Outsiders’ defensive efficiency rankings at the end of last season.
That’s going to hurt an offense that appears to have better protection but will still be limited because of the weapons around Manning.
They’re going to miss wide receiver Golden Tate (Beckham’s replacement) while he’s suspended for the first four games. Sterling Shepard’s production increased onlymarginally in the 11 games he played without Beckham in 2017 and 2018, so he’s yet to prove he’s more than a No. 2 receiver. Cody Latimer, Tate’s primary fill-in, has just 635 receiving yards total in five seasons. And they’re working with a 38-yearold quarterback whose ability to push the ball downfield is questionable at this point.
The Giants are going to have to lean heavily on running back Saquon Barkley and hope that Evan Engram finally stays healthy and becomes one of the NFL’s premier tight ends in order for the offense to offset what projects to be a leaky defense.
So, will the Giants start playing winning football? In comparison to last season’s 5-11 finish, possibly. This team can win seven or eight games if a lot falls into place. But it won’t be enough to justify another year withManning under center.