Murphy shaping up as another one-and-done Democrat
It’s worth noting that the last Democratic governor to win reelection in New Jersey was Brendan Byrne in 1977. Jim Florio didn’t do it, Jim McGreevey wouldn’t have done it, Jon Corzine didn’t do it. In the interim, Tom Kean, Christie Whitman, and Chris Christie - all Republicans - managed the feat.
Of course, this little factoid could be chalked up to a number of factors, but it doesn’t change the math: For whatever reason, Democratic governors have not exactly excelled in New Jersey over the last four-plus decades.
Which brings us to our latest Democrat in Trenton, Gov. Phil Murphy, who according to the latest poll out of Monmouth University, might be starting to shape up as another one-anddone’r.
Listen: Very early. Still twoplus years to go until the election. But …
But for starters, Murphy is lagging behind Christie and Corzine at the same point of their governorships when it comes to overall approval rating. Murphy is at 41% approval, compared to 48% and 46%, respectively, for Christie and Corzine. So that’s not exactly great news.
What’s worse news, though, is Murphy’s standing among independents. With those people - a group that makes up half of the state’s registered voters (more on that in a moment) - Murphy’s numbers are pretty lousy: A 28% approval rating, down significantly from when Mommouth last asked in February, when the number came in at a 39% approval rating.
This is notable because in 2017, Murphy was the clear favorite among people who weren’t sure. In an October Monmouth poll from that year, Murphy was beating Kim Guadagno 48-33 among unaffiliated voters, and barely losing 43-40 among independents.
So if Murphy loses this mushy middle, he could be in big trouble.
Saving grace for Murphy? As Patrick Murray, the director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute said back in 2017, “A lot of media attention is paid to unaffiliated voters in New Jersey because they represent half of all registered voters in the state. However, this group makes up less than one-quarter of the actual voter pool in any given nonpresidential election year.”
So not all bad, right?
OK fine. Not all bad. But the crop of Republican candidates that are shaping up aren’t going to be electoral lightweights.
According to a recent InsiderNJ.com piece, the main potential challengers include former state Sen. Jack Ciattarelli (who lost to former Lt. Gov. Kim Guadagno in the 2017 GOP primary), super-rich dude Bob Hugin, NJ GOP honcho Doug Steinhardt, and Ocean County Sheriff Shaun Golden.
Ciattarelli - who has already announced he intends to run - probably has the inside track right now. I’ll say this much: If I were running his campaign, I’d double down hard on the fact he looks and sounds like a Jersey Guy out of central casting, whereas Phil Murphy … well, he doesn’t.
Of course, all this chitterchatter might be rendered moot should Joe Biden or Elizabeth Warren (or whichever Democrat) win the presidency in 2020. At that point, it’s very possible Murphy could make the jump into the new administration. Murphy’s rep, from day one, is that he was using the office of governor as a stepping stone to something else. Whether it’s true or not who knows, but it feels kinda-sorta open-secretish. How’s that for a non-confirmable confirmation?
Anyway, I love politics, and love the fact the 2021 New Jersey gubernatorial election is almost sure to be too close to call as we head to the polls. Haven’t had one of those elections since 2009.