State exits month better than it started

After a record number of COVID-19 cases in July, followed by a record number of deaths from the virus in August, what could September bring? At last, fewer of each in California.

There were nearly half the cases reported in the state in September than the month prior, and the monthly death toll was lower than any month since June, according to data compiled by this news organization.

On Wednesday, to close out the month, counties around the state reported 3,128 new cases and another 108 deaths from COVID-19. There wasn’t much change in either seven-day average, both of which have been slashed since the month began — the daily average of cases by 37% to about 3,200 per day and the average number of deaths by 23% to about 83 per day.

A look at the monthly totals reveals a sharp decline in cases from the summer and a potential slowdown in deaths. While the decline in cases has been felt across the state, deaths have risen and fallen in different parts of the state at different times.

Conversely, in the County of Lake, Health Officer Gary Pace said “it is probable we will move to the Purple Tier Tuesday, October 6, with businesses having three additional days to comply,” in his latest official communications in the wake of an uptick in cases and deaths in local nursing facilities. As of press time Thursday, the department posted 569 cases, out of which 63 were active and six were hospitalized.

Statewide, there were 107,154 cases and 2,879 deaths from the virus reported during the month of September (which is one day shorter than July and August). That’s a 49% decline in cases from the 211,269 that were reported in August and fewer than half than were reported in July, when the virus was spreading fastest through California. However, the total number of tests fell from about 3.6 million in August to about 3.1 million in September.

The monthly death toll decreased by about 25% from August — the state’s deadliest month of the pandemic. There were 917 fewer fatalities reported in September — or about 26.5 fewer per day — than August, when there were 3,796 deaths reported.

The Bay Area, however, reported its highest month death toll of the pandemic, with 400 fatalities reported throughout the region in September. That’s about 28% more than the 312 deaths reported in the region in August, which had also set a new monthly mark. Yet, on a per-capita basis, the region was still far below the state total (about 5 deaths per 100,000 in the Bay Area vs. 7.3 statewide).

In Los Angeles County, there were fewer than 1,000 deaths from the virus in a month for the first time since March.

The 792 fatalities reported in September were about 32% fewer than in August — but the percapita rate, about 7.9 per 100,000, was still above the state as a whole and about 58% higher than the Bay Area.

In both LA and the Bay Area, the monthly case count was cut nearly in half from the month prior. However, for the Bay Area, that was down from a peak in August.