New poll finds likely recall voters nearly split

Gov. Gavin Newsom may have an (un)likely voter problem.

California voters who plan to cast a ballot in the September recall election are roughly evenly divided when it comes to the question of whether Newsom should be removed from office, with Republican opponents especially eager to get rid of the sitting governor, the Los Angeles Times reported.

According to a new poll from UC Berkeley’s Institute

of Governmental Studies (co-sponsored by the Times, which received early access to the results), 47% of likely voters said they want to recall the governor, while 50% were against ousting Newsom — a slim divide that may come down to which side can motivate its voters to participate in the Sept. 14 election.

Republicans appear to have a jumpstart. While the poll found that 90% of Republicans had a high level of interest in the recall, the same was true for just 58% of Democrats and 53% of independent voters. While Republicans

make up only about a quarter of California’s registered voters, they make up a third of those most likely to vote in the recall. Democrats make up 46% of voters in the state, but drop to 42% of likely voters.

Among all registered voters, the poll found support for the recall at 36% and opposition at 51%, relatively unchanged from previous polling done by IGS.

More than 40 names will appear as replacement candidates on the recall ballot, including former San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer and reality star Caitlyn Jenner.

But Larry Elder, a lastminute addition to the field, seems to be rapidly gaining traction. The poll found Elder leading the field of those hoping to oust Newsom, although 40% of likely voters remain undecided. Eighteen percent of likely voters named Elder their first choice, with Faulconer and businessman John Cox, who lost to Newsom in 2018, each coming in with 10%.

Voters will be able to start filling out their ballots soon. Counties are set to begin mailing all registered voters in the state a ballot on August 16.