Coronavirus case rate among highest in California
The COVID-19 case rate and growth in positive cases overall in Tuolumne County have gone from among the lowest in California to one of the most “explosive” and “exponential” in the Golden State in a matter of weeks, the interim county health officer said Wednesday.
“We’ve gone from really low to a really high percentage,” Dr. Eric Sergienko, the health officer for Mariposa and Tuolumne counties, said in a phone interview.
The total number of coronavirus cases counted in Tuolumne County since March has more than doubled from 305 to 615 in the past 18 days, according to county data.
The sharp increase in cases has coincided with recent Halloween gatherings and the move of the state-funded testing site from the Calaveras County Fairgrounds in Angels Camp to the Mother Lode Fairgrounds in Sonora on Nov. 3.
“As a community we need to do basic things better to decrease disease transmission,” Sergienko said. “Wearing a mask, watching your distance, good hand hygiene. What we’re seeing is people are going to work or gatherings while they’re symptomatic or sick. Going to work or out to a party when you’re symptomatic is a bad idea, and it’s leading to explosive transmission in our community right now.”
There were 254 individuals identified as active cases in the county as of Wednesday morning, with nine who have tested positive for COVID-19 hospitalized. There were two hospitalized one week earlier on Nov. 11.
Asked if there is concern that the current surge in cases will soon translate to an increase in deaths, ......... said, “We typically see about a week lag from increased cases to an increase in hospitalizations, then another week from increased hospitaliza
tions to where we see an increase in deaths.”
Sergienko said people can visualize what’s happening with the rise in the county’s case rate by looking at the prominent orange line below the “Cases by Date of Report” headline at the top center of the Tuolumne County Public Health - COVID-19 Information dashboard, at https://bit.ly/3ii70iq.
“Look at our dashboard and from April to June, it’s flat,” Sergienko said. “And then in around the first of November, especially the sixth of November, it changes from a gentle slope to a climbing slope, a dramatic change in the number of cases. That aligns with we know there were a lot of Halloween parties, and we do have cases that trace back to those.”
People party, don’t wear masks, and get together from different households, Sergienko said. If seven households get together and there’s transmission, then those individuals from those households go out “and we see exponential growth in cases,” Sergienko said.
As of Wednesday, the Tuolumne County COVID-19 dashboard showed the county case rate as 16.5 per 100,000, with a 5 percent positivity rate. Sergienko said that is actually reflecting the state case rate of 16.5, with a statewide positivity rate of 5.2 percent. Tuolumne County’s case rate is actually 31.4 new cases per day per 100,000, with an 8.1 percent positivity rate.
“Eight people out of a hundred are testing positive,” he said. “What impacts your case positivity rate is the number of tests being performed versus the number of tests that are positive. When you have an outbreak like this, your case positivity rate will increase.”
Sergienko emphasized it’s vital for people to think of the obvious to try to slow the current pandemic spread. “If you’re sick stay home. For people who are well, it’s still important to limit travel and contacts as much as possible to limit the spread of this. There is concern this could get worse. We’re seeing explosive growth in cases.”
Sergienko’s advice and warnings come at the same time Gov. Gavin Newsom is considering a statewide curfew to try to slow the current explosion of cases throughout the state. The San Bernardino Sun reported that Los Angeles County has already set a 10 p.m. curfew effective Friday for restaurants, breweries, wineries and non-essential retail businesses.
Newsom’s move toward a statewide curfew coincides with criticism he is facing this week for flouting his government’s social distancing and masking recommendations at a top California political operative’s birthday dinner party on Nov. 6 at the elite French Laundry restaurant in Napa Valley.
The French Laundry features daily chef’s tasting menus and is known as one of the most difficult reservations to secure in the state. Diners can pay $350 to $400 per person.
The gathering that Newsom attended was billed as a 50th birthday celebration for Jason Kinney, a lobbyist and informal adviser to the governor. In attendance among about a dozen revelers at the gathering two weeks ago were California Medical Association CEO Dustin Corcoran and CMA lobbyist Janus Norman, multiple news agencies have reported.
State guidelines imposed by Newsom’s administration limit gatherings, defined as social situations that bring together people from different households at the same time in a single space or place, to no more than three households.
Newsom’s staff have declined to say how many households the diners represented, but did not dispute there were more than three households among the exclusive partygoers.
Newsom called the decision to join the party a “bad mistake” at a press conference on Monday when asked by reporters about whether he believed it would undermine his administration’s efforts to get people to comply with the restrictions.
“I take it very seriously what we are promoting and have been doing so for many, many months, and you should expect nothing less of me, and I expect more from myself,” he said. “And you have that commitment and my resolve in that respect as well.”