‘Better than nothing’
Two storms expected to ease one of Sierra’s driest winters so far
Two storms Friday evening into Saturday and Sunday to Monday are expected to bring badly needed rain and snow to the Mother Lode and the rest of the Central Sierra, in the midst of one of the driest winters on record so far for the region and all of California.
“We’re historically in one of the five driest winters so far for the whole state, including the Central and North Sierra,” Bill Rasch, a National Weather Service meteorologist in Sacramento said Friday in a phone interview. “These storms are better than nothing.”
The incoming storms are “not super strong” and they’re “not classic atmospheric river storms,” Rasch said.
As of Friday afternoon, before the first storm system moved into the Mother Lode, the primary watersheds of Calaveras and Tuolumne counties had received 1.8 inches of precipitation since the current water year began Oct. 1.
That’s just 19% of average for the date Dec. 11, and it was lower to-date than 1976-1977, the region’s seconddriest year on record and the driest year on record through August. Sonora has received even less, just 1.24 inches since July 1.
The first approaching storm, expected to arrive Friday evening, could bring as much as a half-inch to one inch of rain to the Sonora area and Yosemite Valley, with 8 to 12 inches of snow at Ebbets and Sonora passes, and snow levels as low as 3,500 feet tonight, rising above 6,500 feet Saturday.
There’s supposed to be an 18 to 24 hour break in precipitation before the second storm system arrives Sunday. The second storm could bring 4 to 6 more inches of snow to the Highway 4 and Highway 108 passes, which both remain closed due to snow and ice from storms in November.
Rasch estimated the second storm
could also bring 1 to 2 inches of additional rain to the Mother Lode foothills. If that forecast is accurate, water-year precipitation totals for Calaveras and Tuolumne counties could double by Monday morning.
Overnight lows in the Sonora area were expected in the upper 30s Friday, Saturday and Sunday nights. Clearer weather is expected Monday with cooler temperatures and overnight lows close to 32 degrees Fahrenheit, freezing or below freezing, in the Sonora area.
Forecasts for the Stanislaus National Forest as of this week show minimal chances for significant rain and snow for the rest of December.
La Niña conditions are 95% likely to continue bringing less than normal precipitation to the Stanislaus National Forest and the rest of the Central Sierra from January through March, and 65% likely to continue from March through May.
All of the Stanislaus National Forest is in severe drought, scientists with the U.S. Drought Monitor said in an update released Thursday. The entire state of California is abnormally dry or in stages of drought, from moderate to exceptional.
On the upside, it’s still early in what is supposed to be the Central Sierra’s wet season.
Lisa Westbrook, spokeswoman for Tuolumne Utilities District, said the water and wastewater utility that serves more than 43,000 county residents is gratified this weekend could bring more rain and snow to the South Fork Stanislaus watershed.
Westbrook said that Pinecrest and Lyons reservoirs, owned by Pacific Gas and Electric Co., are normally depleted to low levels each autumn to make room for the pending rainy season, and this year is no different.
The district is monitoring water supply storage closely and continues to work with PG&E on the utility’s water supply needs. Westbrook said that Pinecrest was at 22% of capacity and Lyons was at 37% capacity as of Friday.
“Current conditions indicate very little snow in the watershed right now,” she said.
Dodge Ridge Ski Area above Pinecrest off Highway 108 had not opened as of Friday. The resort has a message on its website stating it would open for its 70th anniversary season as soon as “Mother Nature delivers.”
The four-day forecast and snow report showed the resort expected 3 to 6 inches of snow Friday, 0 to 2 inches Saturday, and 0 to 2 inches Sunday. Resort staff said early November snow storms “dropped some great base building snow” that has remained thanks to freezing temperatures at night.
Jeff Hauff, marketing and sales director for Dodge Ridge, said the resort’s earliest opening day was Oct. 30, 2005. He added that they typically receive the amount of snow necessary to open for the season around mid
December. Opening day for the 2019-2020 ski and snowboard season was Dec. 6, 2019.
“We are always ready to open as soon as the snowfall arrives and we are excited for the weather pattern shift in the forecast for this coming weekend,” Hauff said. “The winter weather will deliver new snowfall to the mountain along with a more active weather pattern ahead, as we look forward to making that opening announcement once the necessary snowfall arrives.”
Hauff said they’re pleased California has permitted ski resorts to continue to operate in the midst of the ongoing coronavirus pandemic under state-approved winter operating plans.
The resort will follow all guidelines from state and local health officials. Face coverings will be required “to access the mountain and in all parts of our operations,” Hauff said.
Resort staff will also be able to manage capacity on the mountain through online sales at its website.