The layered reasons the imperfect Kansas City Chiefs remain NFL Super Bowl favorites
The tempting thing here is to go negative about a big lead diminished or let this win wash away with the tide of the Miami Dolphins being young and the New Orleans Saints up next.
But for a moment, at least, let us resist temptation.
Because the Chiefs showed every bit of why they are the NFL’S Super Bowl favorite in Sunday’s 33-27 of the Dolphins in Miami Gardens, Fla.
Explosive: Tyreek Hill running past two defenders, and a game plan clearly built around stopping him, for a 44-yard touchdown, and Mecole Hardman executing a well-blocked 67yard punt return for a score.
Relentless: The first 20 minutes included two Patrick Mahomes interceptions, a dropped fumble, a 30-yard sack and a 10-point deficit … and the Chiefs still pushed the score to the brink of a blowout.
Versatile: They scored 30 straight points with some highlights, and then they protected the lead with another 4 minutes of execution.
Tough: No team routinely comes from behind this well.
“I feel like this team plays better with their backs up against the wall,” Mahomes said. “That’s a good thing to have about a football team.”
This is a good spot for the weekly airing of grievances. The Chiefs won their fifth straight AFC West championship — that streak is older than Mahomes’ professional career — but they do have flaws that could ruin a postseason.
The most immediately pressing might be the defense’s inability to close. They gave up 17 points on three fourth-quarter possessions, turning a 30-10 brink-of-a-blowout score into the Chiefs needing to convert a fourth down and get Harrison Butker to make a 46-yard late field goal in order to secure the win.
The defense did some really good things. Four sacks, lots of pressure, an interception and a safety. But they’ve given up 45 points in three recent fourth quarters — against the Raiders, Bucs and Dolphins — which is a good way to be on the wrong side of a comeback.
“I think any time we have the opportunity to kind of close the coffin on teams we’ve gotta do that,” safety Tyrann Mathieu said. “We’re getting into January football, and a lot of these games are going to come down to whether or not we can finish the game defensively. So that’s really my focus, so I think we’ll be a motivated group this week.”
We can go through some other concerns quickly: The offensive line continues to struggle in the run game, and Mitchell Schwartz’s injury continues to show up in pass protection. They missed too many tackles, gave up too many third downs and gave up touchdowns on both of Miami’s goal-to-go possessions.
Obviously, Mahomes has some mistakes to clean up, too. He threw three interceptions, dropped a snap and took a 30-yard sack — some of it was because of bad decisions, some of it was due to aggressive plays you have to live with, and some of it was about inaccurate throws. But, come on. He also threw for 393 yards and two touchdowns. He’s going to be fine.
So, yes. There are imperfections. Flaws, even, including some that could prevent the Chiefs from enjoying another Super Bowlvictory celebration.
But football prohibits perfection, NFL rules dictate parity, and in that context 12-1 as the Super Bowl favorites is a remarkable thing. This is a better win than it will be considered nationally, too.
Because the Dolphins are good. Tanking can work if you draft well, and the Dolphins appear to be drafting well. Talent can win with the right coach, and Brian Flores appears to be the right coach.
The Dolphins are still a year or two away from being a true Super Bowl contender, but they’re playoff ready right now, and even with the gift of one of Mahomes’ sloppiest games and a drop-your-jaw interception by Xavien Howard oneon-one with Tyreek Hill, they still found themselves down 20 at home.
The Dolphins have one of the league’s best defenses, with a combination of scheme and personnel that in theory should give the Chiefs fits. They still gave up 7.3 yards per play.
Here’s another way to look at it. We can talk a lot about the Chiefs’ flaws, and we do. But it’s nonsensical to do that and ignore the plain fact that their strengths — their many and varied strengths — are enough that the only team to beat them in the last 13 months then lost to them at home a month later.
That’s part of what makes this group different.
The Steelers are probably the NFL’S next-best team, and nobody should be surprised if they win the Super Bowl. But their offense is too often meh, and the NFL has never tilted harder against meh offenses.
A year ago, the Ravens were the league’s best regular-season team, but they relied heavily on winning turnovers, gaining steady yardage on the ground and playing from ahead. That plan imploded in the postseason.
The Chiefs have weaknesses. We know this. Their pass rush has to get home for the rest of the defense to be effective, and their linebackers can be exploited when isolated. Their offensive line is soft in the middle and Mahomes can make things more difficult than necessary if he starts expecting pressure.
But the biggest difference between the Chiefs and other teams is that they possess a better set of strengths to nullify their specific weaknesses than anyone else in the league.
We talk about football preventing perfection, and that’s true, which is usually fine with the Chiefs because they are built to win without needing to be perfect. We’ve seen them struggle. Seen them get down big, face third and 12s, stall a bit on offense, look lost on defense. And we’ve seen them overcome it all, almost without exception.
Just to make quadruple sure: This team can be beat, and in a year when the league appears more top-heavy than usual, the Super Bowl champion will need a heightened combination of precision and fortune.
But the Chiefs just beat a playoff-caliber team on the road after opening with their worst 20-minute stretch of the season.
So we can talk a lot about how they can be beat. But if we do, just remember that the view on that is much different from the opponent’s perspective.