Salary cap suggests Dolphins are in a good spot
The Miami Dolphins are in a unique situation the final two weeks of this NFL season.
Because in those final two weeks the Dolphins can become the league’s only team to make the playoffs this season and secure a Top 5 draft pick for next season. Crazy, right?
And, yet, that’s the reality of what might happen if the Dolphins remain as the AFC’S No. 7 seed in postseason chase while the Houston Texans, who will yield their first- and second-round picks to the Dolphins in the 2021 draft, continue losing.
Today: The Dolphins (9-5) are certain of making the playoffs if they win their final two games at Las Vegas and Buffalo. And the Texans already are slotted with the No. 6 overall pick in the first round of next spring’s draft.
Beyond that, the Texans might not yet have hit bottom.
The Texans, you see, have a 4-10 record and are in a practical tie with Carolina and Atlanta, which also have 4-10 records. It is possible the Texans lose their final two games and end up with a pick as high as No. 4 overall, giving the Dolphins that top-5 pick.
Houston finishes this season with Cincinnati and Tennessee.
The wildcard in all this? The final week of the season might lend itself to upsets because teams such as New Orleans, Buffalo, Tampa Bay and even Tennessee, might rest their starters in preparation for the playoffs.
The point is Houston’s pick could get better
based on what happens the next two weeks.
It should also be noted that even if the Texans, Panthers and Falcons remain in their current spots in the first round, the Texans would get the No. 5 pick of the second round (37th overall).
And, yes, that belongs to Miami.
The Dolphins, by the way, would select no higher than 19th overall in the first round with their own draft pick, if they make the playoffs.
So in a scenario the Dolphins make the playoffs and the current draft slots remain, Miami would have a playoff team that potentially also owns the No. 6, No. 19, No. 37, and No. 54 picks, all in the first two rounds of the next draft
And what might the Dolphins do with those picks?
The Dolphins desperately need playmakers on the outside, at running back and as pass rushers.
One amazing scenario might be the Dolphins going to their favorite college program in Tuscaloosa, Alabama, and plucking Alabama Crimson Tide wide receiver Devonta Smith with their top pick and running back Najee Harris with their late first-round selection.
It should be said Dolphins coach Brian Flores insists his players look only at the pres
ent. He wants them to focus on their next assignment and forget about games or issues beyond this week.
But we don't work for Brian Flores.
So looking ahead ...
The Dolphins have arguably the most favorable draft situation of any AFC East team.
The fact the New York Jets won their first game Sunday — a 23-20 decision over the Los Angeles Rams — dropped them out of the top overall selection for next April.
That top pick belongs to Jacksonville for the time being and will remain so unless the Jaguars win one of their final two games and New York losses both.
So if these two teams continue on their losing ways, the Jets effectively cost themselves a chance to draft Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence — without question the upcoming draft's most prized player.
The Jets, who own two firstround picks based on the Jamal Adams trade to Seattle, would go into the next draft with a very good chance to improve their team. But they also could go into the draft knowing they won't be able to select the draft's best player.
Womp, womp, womp.
The Buffalo Bills have already won the AFC East. They're going to draft no higher than the 21nd overall pick. The New England Patriots are going to finish in third place in the AFC East and are currently slotted with the No.
15 overall pick.
(Yes, the Dolphins will have the highest set of picks of any AFC East team, outside the Jets, next spring.)
The salary cap for next offseason is still undecided but common thinking is it will go down based on lower revenue for the NFL in 2020. The salary figures most are estimating for next season range from $175 million to $180 million.
Using those estimates, the Jets and Patriots will be flush with cash next offseason. The Dolphins will be able to make a strong play on perhaps a couple of free agents, and the Bills will need to watch their spending.
New York's cap space for 2021 at the beginning of the league year is estimated between $65 million and $70 million.
New England's cap space for `21 when the year kicks off is estimated between $58 million and $65 million.
Miami's cap space at the same time is estimated between $25 million and $33 million.
And the Bills' estimated cap space then will be around $5 million and $8 million, and they are going to eventually have to think about paying quarterback Josh Allen before the start of the 2021 season to keep their franchise player happy.
The picture this all paints is one where the Dolphins have a solid opportunity to continue improving and, indeed, making up ground on the division champion Bills.