Running out of time
State warns this could be a ‘critically dry year’ if we don’t get strong storms in March and April
The Mother Lode and the rest of the Central Sierra could be headed toward “a critically dry year” if Mother Nature does not bring a series of strong storms in March and April, the state Department of Water Resources director warned Tuesday.
Weeks of unseasonably dry, warm weather in late February and early March have prompted early blooms on dogwoods and other trees, and green fields of grass from Priest Station to the shores of Don Pedro and New Melones reservoirs, while state snow sensor data Tuesday showed 17.7 inches of snow water equivalent in the Central Sierra — 69% of normal to date.
January storms brought 7 inches of precipitation to principal watersheds of Calaveras and Tuolumne counties, and the first half of February brought about 2 more inches, for a total of 14.1 inches so far in the current water year that started Oct. 1. That’s just 51% of normal for early March.
A manual snow survey Tuesday, at Phillips Station off Highway 50 about 90 miles northeast of Sonora, showed 56 inches of snow depth and a snow water equivalent 86% of average for the location. Karla Nemeth, director of the state Department of Water Resources, said it’s time to look at worst-case scenarios.
February was California’s fifth consecutive dry month of the current water year, Nemeth said Tuesday, and “absent a series of strong storms in March or April, we are going to end with a critically dry year on the heels of last year’s dry conditions.”
For more than 40,000 Tuolumne County residents who rely on snowpack in the South Fork Stanislaus River watershed, a snow station above Pinecrest Reservoir showed 63% of normal and 55% of the April 1 average on Feb. 24, the most current data available from Tuolumne Utilities District.
On Tuesday, Pinecrest Reservoir was holding 3,600 acre-feet, 20% of capacity, and 53% of average for this time of year. Lyons Reservoir was holding 2,200 acre-feet, 40% of capacity, and 62% of average, according to TUD staff.
The district relies on the reservoirs for about 95% of the annual supply of water it provides to customers. Both are projected to “fill and spill,” a term used when the reservoirs are at capacity and water runoff from the snowpack is still flowing into them, later this year.
“Although the current snow survey indicates a lower overall snowpack for the state, for TUD the two reservoirs we rely on, Pinecrest and Lyons, are still projected to fill and spill,” said Lisa Westbrook, spokeswoman for TUD, when asked about the drier than normal conditions on Tuesday.
Westbrook also pointed to current forecasts that reach out eight days to two weeks in March and said “it's looking as though colder temperatures will return with more precipitation. This will definitely help the overall water supply outlook for Tuolumne County.”
Forecasters with the National Weather Service said Tuesday that most of this week will remain dry and mild, with precipitation chances expected to return this weekend.
The approaching weather pattern could bring rain to Sonora and other foothill towns, and snow down as low as the 3,000-foot level on the highway 4, 108 and 120 corridors on Saturday. Chances for more rain and snow could come again Monday through Thursday next week.
New Melones Reservoir on the Stanislaus River was 65% full Tuesday. Don Pedro on the Tuolumne River was 68% full. Higher up in the Tuolumne watershed, Cherry was 71% full and Hetch Hetchy in Yosemite National Park was 54% full.
Automated snow sensors up and down the Sierra Nevada showed statewide snow water equivalent of 15 inches Tuesday, which is 61% of normal for early March, and 54% of the April 1 average.
While TUD staff remained optimistic, the state Department of Water Resources was taking a dimmer view of current snowpack conditions and what it means for the state's water supply.
“With back-to-back dry years, water efficiency and drought preparedness are more important than ever for communities, agriculture and the environment,” Nemeth said Tuesday.
Dry conditions require coordination among state, federal and local entities, state DWR staff said. State water leaders are preparing to address current dry conditions, paying attention to lessons learned in previous drought years.
As dry conditions continue to persist, Californians should look at ways to reduce water use at home every day, state DWR staff said Tuesday. Each individual act of increasing water efficiency can make a difference.
Scientists with the U.S. Drought Monitor said last week 29.5% of the Golden State was in extreme drought, and more than half of California was in severe drought. Calaveras and Tuolumne counties, and much of the rest of the Central Sierra, were in moderate drought. Those assessments were a week old, though. The past week of dry weather has likely placed more of California in extreme drought and severe drought.