The 49ers bet against the Raiders - it’s already paying off

SANTA CLARA — The 49ers were in a pinch this offseason. With the salary cap remaining flat and big contracts already given to elite players, they needed a way to turn a little bit of money into a big return.

So the Niners went to Las Vegas.

And — get this — things actually worked out.

The 49ers’ defensive line is the heartbeat of their team. In 2019, when San Francisco went to the Super Bowl, the Niners’ fast and furious line went eight, nine players deep, and they wreaked havoc on opponents.

The Niners feel like the team’s defensive line is back at its 2019 level. Much of that confidence comes from the return of Nick Bosa and the emergence of Javon Kinlaw, but part of it is this team has serious depth with two — perhaps now three — former Raiders players, signed on the cheap this offseason.

“You know, we didn’t anticipate Arden Key and Hurst to become available, but the Raiders made a decision that they did and we pounced on it,” 49ers general John Lynch said at the start of training camp. “We think they’re good football players who can help us. And so, you know, the more quality depth we can add at that position we think it’s a good thing for us.

And they know they’re going to come here and get coached. They know we have a philosophy that allows those guys to shine and they know they’re going to be surrounded by quality players.”

Lynch’s comments look prophetic as preseason game No. 1 looms Saturday.

To those who didn’t spend much time in Napa or Alameda, Hurst has been the surprise of the Niners’ defense this training camp. Hurst isn’t the best allaround defensive tackle — he’s a bit on the smaller side and his hands aren’t heavy — but he has one skill that is seriously polished and exceptionally valuable: he shoots the gap.

I’ve seen it too many times in training camp 11-on-11 drills to count — Hurst bursts off the line of scrimmage so fast you immediately look to the referees. No, he wasn’t offsides, but now he’s

past the offensive line and in the backfield. The play is over for the offense.

Hurst might not be an everydown tackle — he's not going to push-back double teams or push an anchored guard into the ground — but it's easy to imagine him being on the field on passing downs or when there's a guard and center combination that the Niners want to exploit. He's proven to be an outstanding fit for the 49ers' “all-gas, no-breaks” front and a significant upgrade over Solomon Thomas, who was supposed to be that kind of player for the 49ers for the last few years.

The Raiders signed Thomas this past offseason, effectively choosing him over Hurst. The Niners are thrilled with that de-facto trade so far. Meanwhile, reports out of Nevada indicate that Thomas might be on the chopping block.

The Raiders also let Key — an LSU product who was considered a possible first-round pick before a worrisome 2017 season on the Bayou — walk this offseason. The Raiders selected him in the third round of the 2018 draft and threw him into the fire when they traded Khalil Mack to the Bears.

To say that Key struggled with the Raiders would be an understatement to Raiders fans. It seemed that he was never able to translate his superior athleticism into effective rushes, registering just three sacks in 27 games.

But the film tells a different story — Key has heavy, linemanmoving hands and impressive moves and bend off the edge. He's a solid pass rusher if he's in the right position.

That was not the case in Oakland or Las Vegas. Key said this weekend that he was playing a “tight-five” technique with the Raiders, meaning he lined up face-to-face or just off the shoulder of the offensive tackle.

With the Niners, he's Bosa's backup at “wide-nine”, which means he's outside of the tight end.

“I wanted to get out of there,” Key said of the Raiders. “It was just bad all around for me. Bad system. It just wasn't the right fit for me. I had to get out.”

Playing Key at 5-technique seems so ridiculous given his speed off the edge and one-on-one ability that I thought he was exaggerating in that press conference. But I popped on a few 2020 Raiders games over the weekend and, sure enough, there was Key, lined up across from the tackle snap after snap.

That's the Raiders' system, though. We can debate the merits of different defensive fronts some other day.

For now, I'll say that Key is in a better situation for his skills and he's looked like a solid depth piece for the Niners in 2021.

The Niners are so thrilled with Raiders castoffs, they signed another one this week — Shilique Calhoun, the Raiders' third-round pick in 2016. He faces a serious uphill climb to make the roster, but he could be a practice-squad guy for San Francisco this year. But why not roll the dice again?

The Niners' strategy of signing former Raiders' defensive linemen is reminiscent of something the Warriors did during their first season at Chase Center. It was never officially declared in a press conference or post-game huddle, but the Warriors, in the postKevin Durant era, looked to take advantage of the worst teams in basketball at the time — the Suns and the Timberwolves.

The Dubs signed Marquese Chriss because they were sure his original team, the Suns, had no idea how to develop him at 19 years old. Chris had two solid seasons for the Dubs.

Later, the Warriors traded for Andrew Wiggins and what turned out to be the No. 7 pick last month's NBA draft because they bet the Timberwolves weren't competent enough to maximize Wiggins' talent or avoid a bad season. They were right on both counts.

The Niners are doing the same thing with the Raiders here. They're betting on talent.

They're also betting on something I'm sure most Raiders fans will echo: the Raiders defensive coaches didn't know what they were doing with that talent.

The Niners feel vindicated in their bets at this early juncture of the season. Both Hurst and Key signed one-year, $1,045,000 contracts — a pittance for solid depth at the teams' most important positions.

The only question now is how much return the Niners can get on those investments and if that profit can buy them a trip to Los Angeles in February.