Surge may be leveling off, but it’s no time to relax

While the current COVID-19 surge that’s largely driven by the delta variant is showing signs of moderating at the state level, some statistics still paint a bleak outlook for Tuolumne and Calaveras counties.

A factor in that disparity is that while 62.7% percent of Californians between 18 to 49 years old were fully vaccinated, Tuolumne County had 30.8% and Calaveras had 32.1% of the same age group fully vaccinated.

“Almost two-thirds of our 18 to 49 year olds are unvaccinated,” said Dr. Eric Sergienko, interim health officer for Tuolumne County. “That’s where our growth in cases and hospitalizations is. We’re seeing people in their 20s, 30s, and 40s hospitalized, and they have no underlying medical conditions.”

The most current data from the California Department of Public Health also showed on Wednesday that test positivity rates over the past week were 10.6% for Tuolumne and 17.8% for Calaveras, compared with 5.4 % statewide.

Sergienko, who also serves as health officer of Mariposa County, noted there’s a high likelihood that cases are being undercounted whenever an area’s test positivity rate exceeds 8%.

“Statewide, they’re seeing a reduction in the number of secondary cases each new case produces,” he said. “In Tuolumne County, we are still seeing a large number of secondary cases. If we’re looking at deaths, it’s important to note deaths lag behind cases by days to weeks.”

Tuolumne County had record-setting case rates

“Some groups will never change their minds, and we can’t use up energy on those groups. We will continue to work with those who have questions and concerns. We only have so much energy and resources.”

— Dr. Eric Sergienko, Tuolumne County interim health officer

Monday and Tuesday of 62.8 and 64.5 cases per 100,000 population over the past two weeks.

Sergienko said the numbers of the next week will be telling because there’s a lag in reporting of new cases by about three to four days, though he’s hopeful Tuolumne County could start to see cases level off within the next month.

“Where it’s not going to go away, but we’ll see a decreasing number of new cases over the next four or five weeks. That’s what I’m optimistic for,” he said. “The statewide numbers reflect that, and we hope the same trend plays out here.

That doesn’t mean “zero growth,” Sergienko noted, but not the “explosive growth” the county has experienced since early July. He added that delta variant surges in India and England lasted about eight weeks and peaked at about four to five weeks.

If leveling off or peaking of the current surge is happening, Sergienko said it’s because people are taking COVID-19 precautions more seriously and more are getting vaccinated.

“People are taking steps,” Sergienko said. “More people are getting vaccinated. More people are wearing masks. More people are avoiding gatherings. We don’t want them to relax. Don’t ease up just yet. Especially with Labor Day coming up, with more people traveling, more people spending time with friends and family. It’s no time to relax.”

Asked about how he views Tuolumne County residents who are steadfast about remaining unvaccinated, Sergienko said, “Some groups will never change their minds, and we can’t use up energy on those groups. We will continue to work with those who have questions and concerns. We only have so much energy and resources.”