Coronavirus cases rising; is a new wave coming?
LOS ANGELES — After months of declining numbers, California has recorded a nearly 30% increase in coronavirus cases over the last week along with smaller rises in hospitalizations, causing some health officials to suspect that the state is headed into a new pandemic wave.
The increase coincides with a loosening of COVID-19 restrictions such as mask mandates and vaccine verification rules as well as the rise of new subvariants of the highly transmissible omicron strain. The question now is how much higher cases will go and whether new government intervention will be needed.
“We're expecting a small surge that may mirror something that we saw in delta last summer, in early July, but it's happening now, in May,” Dr. Curtis Chan, deputy health officer for San Mateo County, said in an interview.
Chan expects a rise in both hospitalizations and deaths but doesn't believe a new surge would be as bad as last winter's omicron wave.
“The virus is definitely flowing,” Dr. Matt Willis, Marin County's health officer, said in an interview. “People need to know the likelihood of an exposure in the community is increasing.”
California has been recording about 5,600 coronavirus cases a day over the last week, its highest case rate since early March. California's latest per capita case rate — 100 cases a week for every 100,000 residents — is just enough to meet the threshold for a high rate of coronavirus transmission, data analyzed by The Times show.
Coronavirus- positive hospitalizations have risen 7% in the last week, ticking up to 1,037 statewide as of Saturday. Of them, 146 were in intensive care units, a figure that's up 13% over the same time period.
The number of hospitalizations is still among the lowest levels of the pandemic. But the state's COVID Assessment Tool ensemble forecast suggests hospitalizations will go up by an additional 65% by Memorial Day and that the number of COVID-19 patients needing intensive care will double by then.
On Sunday, the state estimated that the effective coronavirus transmission rate was 1.24. This means each infected Californian is typically transmitting the virus to more than one person, which may indicate the virus' spread is increasing.
San Mateo County has California's highest coronavirus case rate — with 222 cases a week for every 100,000 residents. San Francisco is second, with a rate of 220. L.A. County's rate is 127.
There's some speculation that case rates are relatively higher in the Bay Area in part because of a high rate of testing. Still, the data are concerning enough that San Mateo County is warning nursing homes, jails, shelters and similar settings about the need to take additional precautions, Chan said.
“We're certainly seeing it amongst people presenting in urgent care [centers and] emergency rooms,” Chan said. “We're seeing it in the sewage as well too. So it's real.”
Just 2 1/2 weeks ago, every California county had a low COVID-19 Community Level as defined by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention — colored green on the agency's maps, reflecting a tier system tied to a combination of case and hospitalization levels. But on Thursday, the CDC designated three counties as having a medium COVID-19 Community Level, placing San Mateo, Santa Cruz and Marin counties in the yellow tier.
The CDC suggests people at high risk for severe disease in those counties consider wearing a mask in indoor public settings. The CDC also suggests that companies, schools and other institutions in those counties consider enacting screening testing for people exposed to the virus at worksites, schools or other settings.
“There are institutional things that each leader of a particular agency or program can do to make their community safer,” Chan said. “This is now that time to activate those responses.”
Since mid-february, when a statewide universal indoor mask mandate was lifted, the state Department of Public Health has issued more stringent advice than the CDC for Californians, strongly recommending universal mask wearing in indoor public settings.
Signs of increasing transmission have emerged statewide. Coronavirus cases in Los Angeles County are up by 40% over the previous week, a trend Public Health Director Barbara Ferrer has not characterized as a new surge, but still referred to as “pretty significant.” In L.A. County, coronavirus levels in wastewater systems have nearly doubled over the last two weeks, and clusters of coronavirus cases — while still at low levels — are climbing at nursing homes, workplaces and schools.
Ferrer said she was hopeful the increase in cases stabilizes fairly soon and that stress on the hospital system will be minimized because of vaccinations and increasing availability of ANTI-COVID drugs.
Still, no one can guarantee that a universal mandatory mask policy will never return if pandemic trends in hospitals deteriorate dramatically.
Ferrer has said L.A. County is prepared to reinstitute a universal mask order in indoor public settings should conditions worsen so much that the CDC designates L.A. County as having a high COVID-19 Community Level, which means the CDC once again recommends the practice.
Compared with the prior week, coronavirus cases are up by 26% in San Diego County, 35% in Orange and Ventura counties, and 39% in Riverside County. They're up by 23% in Greater Sacramento, and have risen by 40% in the Bay Area and the San Joaquin Valley.
Over the prior week, coronavirus-positive hospitalizations are up 4% in L.A. County, 26% in Orange County and 12% in the Bay Area.
Local health officials in California aren't making any moves to cancel gatherings such as proms and graduations.
But they are suggesting it's time to be more cautious, given the rapid spread of two omicron subvariants, BA.2 and its evenmore-infectious successor, BA.2.12.1.
Although some people have tired of taking measures to guard against a coronavirus infection, health experts emphasize it's still prudent to take precautions. Those who are unvaccinated are at higher risk of severe illness and death, and even for those who are vaccinated, there is still some risk of infection leading to long COVID, in which illness can persist for years, as well as higher risk of heart disease and diabetes.