Haley: A narrow path to the nomination

Could Nikki Haley really beat Donald Trump? asked Ross Douthat in The New York Times. Buoyed by a series of strong debate showings, the feisty former South Carolina governor is rising in the polls and drawing praise as “an appealing and charismatic leader” who is “showing that you can thrive as a Republican without surrendering to Trumpism.” Polls show support for Haley has jumped 10 points in crucial Iowa, whose caucuses start the GOP nomination contest; she’s now running even there with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, whose Trump-lite campaign is floundering. And in New Hampshire, another early primary state, Haley is polling at 20 percent to DeSantis’ 9 percent. Big-money donors are increasingly lining up behind Haley as the GOP’s best bet to beat Trump, said Fredreka Schouten in CNN.com. “Everything I hear is folks moving to Haley,” said GOP fundraiser Eric Levine.

Haley has a narrow path to the nomination, said David Freedlander in New York magazine. A strong finish in Iowa “would propel her into New Hampshire,” where she could galvanize independents, then her home state South Carolina, where she has strong support and existing campaign infrastructure. If Trump, “whose image is built on being a winner above all else,” loses in one or two states and starts looking vulnerable, “it would scramble the remaining map and polling.” Trump’s poll lead is large, but it’s soft: 41 percent of his backers say they’re open to a “more electable alternative.” Swing-state polls show Haley— a pragmatic, Reagan-style conservative—is “far more electable in the general” than the “increasingly deranged” Trump, said Christian Schneider in National Review. As other candidates drop out, she can “start looking like a winner”—a narrative that takes on a life of its own.

Haley may be “surging,” said Ben Mathis-Lilley in Slate, but she’s “still completely irrelevant.” As she vies to finish a strong second in early primaries, Trump remains in first place, 40 or more points ahead. A conviction in one of his four criminal trials could hurt him, but his first trial— on federal charges that he corruptly tried to overturn the 2020 election—won’t start in D.C. until March, after the Iowa and New Hampshire votes. So, Haley and her “buzzy, big-money campaign” have no choice but to focus on ousting DeSantis and the “second-tier candidates,” and hope she gets a head-to-head battle with Trump before he wraps up the nomination.